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921
FXUS64 KMEG 221945
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
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Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Hot conditions will persist into the beginning of the week as an
upper level ridge remains parked over Texas. The best chance of
rain will occur on Wednesday with thunderstorms likely by the
afternoon. Temperatures for the end of the week will be slightly
cooler, in the low 90s.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Hot conditions continue to dominate the Mid-South with 230PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s areawide. The upper level ridge
responsible for bringing heat to the region will retrograde west
tomorrow as a dissipating cold front impacts the region. Little to
no relief will be realized as this boundary treks across the Mid-
South. Instead, more efficient moisture return will bring
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. This, combined with
temperatures in the 90s, will result in several areas reaching
heat index values of 105 F. As such, a Heat Advisory will go into
effect at noon for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas of the Mid-South in
a Marginal Risk for severe storms tomorrow. Severe weather
parameters at this time look lack luster with mid level lapse
rates around 5.5 C/km and bulk shear near 20 kts. However, instability
should be plentiful in the afternoon. If a storm does get going,
the greatest threat would be gusty winds.

Additional heat headlines will be likely Monday and Tuesday as the
aforementioned ridge remains centered over Texas. There exists a
low (10-20 percent) potential for shower and thunderstorm
development Monday and Tuesday. Any precipitation that does occur
will likely be isolated in nature. Instead, greater rain chances
exist on Wednesday as a shortwave trough treks across the region.
Thunderstorm development will be likely in the afternoon with
upscale storm growth limited by low shear values. Current thinking
is that these storms will be of the pop-up pulse variety.

Slightly cooler temperatures will be in place for the end of the
week with highs in the low 90s.

ANS
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR CIGs with light winds will prevail through the period.
Isolated showers will be possible by mid-morning near JBR.
12Z CAMs keep showers dissipating through midday, so opted to not
include VCSH at MKL and MEM.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001-002-019-
     048-049-088.
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&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...ANS