-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
667
FXUS62 KMHX 242345
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
745 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through the area this evening, with
drier high pressure briefly building in behind it for Tuesday.
High pressure then restrengthens offshore Wednesday, with
another cold front crossing into the region Thursday. High
pressure then builds in behind this feature from the north late
week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 740 PM Mon...Showers and thunderstorms are now pushing
offshore and the severe threat has largely ended for all inland
locations, although a threat remains over offshore waters. Main
cold front is lagging behind and sits just west of the FA per
regional observations, but is expected to push across the region
later tonight. A few isolated showers (and given lingering
instability, a thunderstorm or two) are possible immediately
along the front, but these are not expected to pose a severe
risk.

T/Td trends were adjusted based on observational trends. Did
nudge up overnight temperatures a few degrees, but a few upper
60s are still likely inland.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Mon...High pressure will build in Tue, providing a
slightly cooler and drier airmass with low level easterly flow.
Veering onshore flow will keep the coast in the mid to upper
80s for highs, and upper 80s to low 90s inland under mostly
sunny skies. Still looks mostly dry, but can`t rule out an
isolated shower across the southern area during peak heating
closer to the weak boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Heat and humidity continue this week with
high pressure ridging into the area. Near normal precip chances
(scattered afternoon thunderstorms) are expected with rain
likely Thursday as a cold front moves into the area.

Wednesday through Friday...Local area of high pressure will
become absorbed into the massive western Atlantic ridge on
Wednesday with warm moist southerly flow returning to the
Carolinas. Thicknesses build rather quickly Wednesday, which
will allow for temperatures to soar into the mid to upper 90s
inland, and low 90s along the coast. Though it will be humid,
some mixing of drier air above the surface during the afternoon
will keep heat indices from becoming extreme, but still expect
values to range from 100 to 105 degrees.

Another cold front will move into the region on Thursday, and
with good model consensus, confidence is increasing that we will
see good coverage of rain and thunderstorms (50-60% chance)
throughout the day. Precip chances will continue Thursday night
as the front crosses the area and moves offshore Friday morning.
Behind this front a marginally cooler airmass will build in with
high pressure to the north.

Temperatures will be hot and humid again Thursday ahead of the
front, but developing convection should limit highs to only the
upper 80s to low 90s. Even still heat indices will again top 100
degrees as dewpoints remain very high through the day. Slightly
cooler conditions expected Friday with onshore flow, and we will
see highs in the mid to upper 80s along the coast and low 90s
inland.

Saturday and Sunday...Heat and humidity look to build again this
weekend with offshore ridging restrengthening. We`ll have highs
reaching the mid 90s inland, and the upper 80s to low 90s along
the coast. Dewpoints in the 70s both days will lead to heat
indices reaching at least 100 to 105. In this moist and unstable
airmass at least scattered chances for thunderstorms will be
possible, but greater chances may arrive late Sunday as yet
another front moves into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through 00z Wednesday/...
As of 745 PM Mon...Primary cluster of showers and storms has now
cleared all terminals with VFR conditions prevailing. Main cold
front, currently displaced to the west from roughly RWI to GWW
to CPC, will continue to gradually cross the terminals with
little fanfare although the front itself could kick up a very
isolated shower or storm prior to 03z. With light winds and
clearing skies, plus freshly saturated soils, some fog is
possible early Wed morning but main question is whether dry air
behind the front will move in fast enough to inhibit its
formation. Given low probabilities, opted to continue holding
off inclusion in the TAFs but trends will need to be monitored.

VFR flight conditions on Tuesday with easterly post-frontal
winds and only spotty cu through the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Mostly VFR conditions are expected this week
with high pressure ridging in over the area. However, a cold
front will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
to the airspace Thursday and Thursday night, which could lead to
some periods of sub-VFR conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 245 PM Mon...Latest obs show WSW-SW winds 10-20 kt,
strongest south of Hatteras with seas 2-4 ft north of Oregon
Inlet and 4-7 ft south. SCAs continue for the waters south of
Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound with gusty winds and elevated
seas. Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for the rivers,
sounds and coastal waters through this evening. Strong to severe
thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and frequent
lightning will be possible for the next few hours. A cold front
will move through the waters this evening, pushing offshore
tonight. As the front crosses the area this evening, there will
be the potential for a brief period of northerly winds 15-20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt immediately behind the front, then winds
will diminish to NE 10-15 kt late with seas diminishing to 2-5
ft. High pressure builds in for Tue with easterly winds 10-20 kt
and seas 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Decent boating conditions expected this week
with high pressure over the area aside from Thursday when a
cold front moves through.

Winds then veer to the south Wednesday at 5-15 kts, and then
increase to SSW 10-20 kts Wednesday night ahead of a cold front.
The front will cross the waters during the day Thursday from
north to south with winds becoming NE at 5-15 kts behind it and
remaining SW 5-15 kts to its south. Veering NE to E flow is then
expected Friday at 5-15 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft this
week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/MS
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...CQD/SGK