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066
FXUS64 KOHX 270533
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Water vapor imagery this evening shows an upper-level trough
overhead with drier air beginning to move into west TN. A very
saturated atmosphere is present though as seen by the 00Z sounding
(before the radiosonde failed). Most of the thunderstorm activity
has moved out of the area with just lingering showers left
behind. SPC mesoanalysis shows a pretty worked over atmosphere
with little CAPE and abysmal lapse rates. Therefore, do think that
the severe threat is done for the night. These showers are
expected to linger through tomorrow morning before the drier air
finally moves in.

Otherwise, please be sure to enjoy this cooler weather tomorrow
before we`re hot again this weekend. Tomorrow`s forecast highs
are in the 80s with low humidity!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

An upstream shortwave is poised to move through the area tonight.
PVA in advance of this feature is expected to work into the area
beginning later this afternoon. This will serve to act upon an
increasing area of instability and hence, we will see thunderstorm
development by late this afternoon. We are in a marginal risk for
severe with the primary threat being straight line damaging wind
potential. 850 mb wind speeds are only around 15-20 kts so vertical
storm height/structure will need to be sufficient enough so as to
reach strong to severe levels. Quite a bit of cloud cover in
place now so additional cape increase may be somewhat mitigated.
That said, we do see some current values approaching 2000 j/kg in
our east.

Moving on, a fair deal of moisture will reside into Thursday
morning. We could still see some lingering showers/a few tstms into
the morning hours. Otherwise, heights will be on the increase with
an upper high developing across TX. Westerlies will shift north
leaving a large zone of ridging across the mid and deep south. This
will equate to a marked decrease in pop values with just minimal inclusion
for Thursday night through Friday night.

For the near term temps, the shortwave will be bringing a
welcomed break through Thursday with highs holding in the 80s.
This wont last long though as the aforementioned height increase
takes over and sends us back int the 90s on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

In the extended forecast, the upper high over TX will bring the heat
but it looks as though it will remain to our southwest. This will
allow a weak but entrenched west northwesterly ul flow to
prevail. We might get a boundary through here on Saturday night
which will bring another round of shower and tstm chances with it.
Tough to get boundaries though the area this time of year.
However, the Euro and GFS solutions are both on board with brining
the boundary through. Plenty of instability will welcome the
boundary so keep an eye for Saturday. No outlook as of yet but
that may change.

Moving on, dry weather returns with the surface high to our north
in control. Meanwhile, the upper ridging looks poised to take
over our weather pattern by mid week. Thus, hot and dry weather to
set up.

Those extended temperatures will feature a noticeable variability.
Saturday, ahead of the boundary, it will be quite hot and in the 90s
for most areas. Sunday and Monday will contain a 10 degree cooldown
with that surface high to our north being in control. Then, back up
into the 90s again with the upper ridge returning.

As for the tropics? the Atlantic looks clean for the most part.
There are a couple of disturbances just north of the itcz with only
low probabilities of reaching tropical organization levels.

The 6 to 14 day outlook calls for above normal temps and below
normal precip. Looks like more hot weather is on the way.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

TAFs are going to be sloppy for several more hours as we deal with
the backside of this current system. On the whole, look for IFR
cigs for several more hours with improvement to MVFR as we near
daybreak for CKV/BNA/MQY. VFR should return to all mid-state
terminals before 16Z/Fri. Winds will be light and mostly north to
northeasterly.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Nashville      89  70  92  76 /  20   0   0   0
Clarksville    87  66  91  74 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     82  64  86  69 /  40  10  20  20
Columbia       88  68  91  73 /  30   0   0   0
Cookeville     84  66  88  72 /  30   0  10  10
Jamestown      83  64  88  71 /  30   0  10  10
Lawrenceburg   86  68  90  72 /  40  10   0  10
Murfreesboro   89  69  92  74 /  30   0   0  10
Waverly        87  67  91  74 /  10   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Clements
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Unger