-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
496
FXUS61 KOKX 221125
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
725 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure east of the region will continue to slowly depart
today. Meanwhile, high pressure noses in from the northeast and
remains in control through at least Tuesday. A frontal system then
approach on Wednesday and move across on Thursday. High pressure
slowly returns Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track. High pressure continues to build in from the
north today as the low pressure system off to the east
continues to move away from the region. Expect dry conditions
today along with a northeast flow. The northeast winds will keep
temperatures in the lower and middle 70s today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Expect a dry and cool pattern to continue through the short term.
High temperatures on Monday will only be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s while overnight lows fall into the 50s. A few upper
40s can not be ruled out overnight, especially the usually
cooler locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:

* Dry into daytime Tuesday.

* Possible showers Tue night through Thu night with an approaching
  frontal system.

* Uncertainty as to whether shower chances may continue into Fri or
  Sat.

* Temperatures near to slightly below normal from Mon-Thu, with
  moderation to slightly above normal Friday and Saturday.

Not much change in the long term and stuck fairly close to the NBM.

High pressure slowly starts to lift north on Tuesday. This will
allow a frontal boundary from the west to approach. PoPs start to
increase west of NYC Tuesday night, also to the NYC metro area and
western Long Island/CT daytime Wednesday, and throughout the
entire CWA Wednesday night/Thursday.

Model disagreement continues late in the week into next weekend with
the timing of the front exiting the region. Some forecast guidance
has the frontal system moving east as high pressure builds in from
the west, while others have the front moving slower with a weak wave
developing along it. Will continue to keep slight chance PoP for Fri
and dry conditions for Sat, but these are uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure ridges in from the northeast today.

Mainly a VFR day. There are some MVFR cigs around the NYC metro,
which may continue through about 14z, so will cover this with a
TEMPO for now.

NE winds around 10kt for the pre-dawn hours, but a little
stronger at KGON with some gusts around 20kt. Gusts 20-25 kt
returning by noon, mainly east of the city terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance MVFR cigs continue longer than forecast.

Occasional gusts to 20kt possible this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: VFR, except chance of MVFR east of the city.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with pockets of MVFR
in SHRA. E/NE G15-20kt possible at the coastal terminals.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR in SHRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As low pressure continues to slowly drift away from the region, high
pressure will build in from the north. With the SCA gusts slowly
starting to diminish, seas will remain on all the ocean waters with
seas remaining well above 5ft. Seas peak today through Monday at 6
to 8 ft. The Small Craft Advisory has been extended into Monday
night, but will likely need to be extended further over the next
several forecast cycles. An extended period of hazardous ocean seas
and rough conditions at the inlets should remain through at least
Wednesday. Seas may start to diminish below 5 ft Wed night into Thu,
but could come back up again later on Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Tuesday.

Basin avg QPF from Wed into Thu night should range from 3/4 to 1
inch. Only minor nuisance impacts expected at most, mainly on
Thu.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding will continue into Monday, but impacts and areal
coverage will be on the downswing as astronomical tides continue to
lower. The offshore low responsible for the easterly swell that has
helped pile water into the area will slowly work southeast through
early next week. Once more cycle of widespread coastal flooding
occurs late this morning into the afternoon. There continues to be
potential for localized moderate flooding, especially for the south
shore back bays of Nassau. No changes were made to headlines for
this tide cycle. However, water levels may fall short across SE CT,
especially coastal New London.

The high tide cycle tonight into early Monday should largely fall
short of minor benchmarks, but the most vulnerable spots in the
south shore back bays of Nassau could briefly touch minor. Have
decided to hold off on a statement. Water levels came in slightly
lower than expected with the late Saturday night/early Sunday
morning high tide, and there is a good chance it ends up just being
Freeport that touches, with little to no impacts.

A coastal flood advisory is now in effect for high tide Monday
afternoon for the south shore back bays, Lower NY Harbor, and
adjacent locations along Western LI Sound in S. Fairfield and S.
Westchester. These are the areas that have the highest chance of
exceeding minor benchmarks. Water levels should remain below
moderate in S. Nassau. For most other locations, any coastal
flooding during the afternoon high tide Monday looks localized. Held
off on any statements for these locations for now, but may be needed
in subsequent forecasts.

The high rip current risk continues through Monday evening due to a
prolonged period of easterly swells.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 5 PM EDT this
     afternoon for CTZ009-010.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 6 PM EDT Monday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 5 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 6 PM EDT Monday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ072-074-075-080-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ074-075-178-179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday afternoon for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NJZ006-106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Monday for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC/DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...BC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...