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450
FXUS61 KOKX 220532
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
132 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Offshore low pressure continues to slowly depart to the
southeast tonight through Sunday. Meanwhile, high pressure noses
in from the northeast and remains in control through at least
Tuesday. A frontal system may then approach on Wednesday and
move across on Thursday, High pressure may slowly return on
Friday and Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The forecast is mainly on track. Only bumped up low temps over
parts of LI and SE CT a little based on recent and anticipated
cloud cover.

Offshore low pressure is centered about 300nm southeast of the
area. The low will continue to slowly depart to the southeast
tonight, while high pressure centered well to our northeast
noses into the area. A slight chance of showers for far eastern
portions of LI and CT remains this evening, then dry overnight.

As the pressure gradient slowly slackens over the area tonight,
winds will lower a bit. However, can still expect 10 to 15 mph
sustained winds, with gusts up to 20 mph for far eastern LI and CT.
Given the elevated winds, stuck with the NBM for lows tonight. Not
expecting good radiational cooling conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure continues to build in on Sunday and will remain in
control through at least Tuesday. Aloft, heights rise on Sunday as
an upper level ridge builds in. The ridge axis will pass overhead
early Monday.

This pattern will bring dry conditions to end the weekend and start
next week. It will also bring a slight cooling trend. Highs will be
right around normal on Sunday and then likely just below normal on
Monday. Stuck with NBM for the most part for temperatures. Blended
some MOS guidance and the NBM 10th percentile across the northern
interior for Sunday night where winds will be lighter and dewpoints
a bit lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:

* Dry into daytime Tuesday.

* Possible showers Tue night through Thu night with an approaching
  frontal system.

* Uncertainty as to whether shower chances may continue into Fri or
  Sat.

* Temperatures near to slightly below normal from Mon-Thu, with
  moderation to slightly above normal Friday and Saturday.

Forecast mostly follows NBM, but with somewhat lower PoP and sky
cover until the current dry-begets-dry pattern truly shows signs of
breaking. High pressure nosing down from the northeast on Mon should
hang on into at least Tue, then start slowly introducing PoP to
areas W of NYC Tue night, also to the NYC metro area and western
Long Island/CT daytime Wed, and throughout Wed night/Thu.

Model disagreement remains especially from that point on as to
whether the frontal system will even clear the area on Fri with high
pressure building from the N per 12Z GFS, or if low pressure will
develop nearby and then move slowly away per 00Z ECMWF. Have slight
chance PoP for Fri and dry conditions for Sat, but these are
uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure ridges in from the northeast today.

MVFR to VFR at KGON, otherwise VFR for all the terminals, bu
still a low chance of MVFR cigs from approx 08-13z for all but
KSWF.

NE winds around 10kt for the pre-dawn hours, but a little
stronger at KGON with some gusts around 20kt. Gusts 20-25 kt
returning by noon, mainly east of the city terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Can not rule out an occasional gust to 20kt mainly for KJFK and
KLGA starting late morning today, with this possibility lasting
through the afternoon.

Brief MVFR possible from approx 08-13z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late tonight: VFR, but possibly MVFR east of the city.

Monday: VFR, except chance of MVFR east of the city.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with pockets of MVFR
in SHRA. E/NE G15-20kt possible at the coastal terminals.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR in SHRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Offshore low pressure continues to bring gusty winds to the
eastern waters and 5+ ft swell to the ocean waters. The low will
slowly drift southeast, with 25 kt gusts likely ending
everywhere by late tonight except on the ocean east of Moriches
Inlet. However, Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue on
all ocean waters for some time with 5+ ft seas. Seas peak
tonight through Monday at 6 to 8 ft. The Small Craft Advisory
has been extended into Monday, but will likely need to be
extended further over the next several forecast cycles. An
extended period of hazardous ocean seas and rough conditions at
the inlets should remain through at least Wed. Seas may start to
diminish below 5 ft Wed night into Thu, but could come back up
again later on Thursday.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Tuesday.

Basin avg QPF from Wed into Thu night should range from 3/4 to 1
inch. Only minor nuisance impacts expected at most, mainly on
Thu.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding will continue into Monday, but impacts and
areal coverage will be on the downswing as astronomical tides
continue to lower. The offshore low responsible for the easterly
swell that has helped pile water into the area will slowly work
southeast through early next week. There will be one more cycle
of widespread coastal flooding on Sunday with the potential for
localized moderate, especially for the south shore back bays of
Nassau. The high tide cycles tonight and Sunday night will
feature more localized minor flooding for locations adjacent to
Lower NY Harbor and western LI Sound. However, an advisory is in
effect for late tonight for the south shore back bays of Queens
and Nassau where minor flooding will be a bit more widespread.
The south shore back bays of western LI will likely have issues
through Monday.

As for surge guidance, leaned toward a blend of the TOFs, ETSS
and Steven`s 50th percentile. However, Steven`s guidance has
been overdone in the south shore back bays of LI, likely due to
no wind forcing (E/SE winds). This has been accounted for with
some downward adjustment. This was particularly noticeable over
the eastern bays of LI, where there has been little if any
flooding noted.

The high rip current risk continues through Monday evening due
to a prolonged period of easterly swells.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 5 PM EDT this
     afternoon for CTZ009-010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 5 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT
     this afternoon for NYZ072-074-075-080-178-179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday afternoon for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     NYZ178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT
     this afternoon for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...JC/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...