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467
FXUS66 KOTX 171823
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1123 AM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue each
day through mid week especially up in the mountains. A warming
trend is expected through the week, with high temperatures
rebounding into the mid 80s to mid 90s on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tuesday: A Low is currently traversing the Inland
Northwest. It will generally bring cloudy conditions through the
morning hours. By the early afternoon, the atmosphere will slowly
destabilize and allow for convection. Most of the region can
expect showers and isolated thunderstorms through the evening.
Best potential for thunder is Northeast WA and the Northern
Panhandle with around 20-30%. Spokane and Palouse have around
15-20% chance of thunderstorms. Impacts will mainly be brief
downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Ensembles do indicate
gusty winds for the Cascade valleys with gusts near 30 MPH during
the afternoon. Temperatures will be on a warming trend with highs
reaching into the 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows will be in the
upper 30s and 40s.

By Tuesday, the Low will be positioned over Montana with high
pressure ridge building off the Pacific coast. It will bring a
saturated northwestern flow pattern into the region. It will
again another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Inland
Northwest. It is not as widespread as Monday. The shower activity
is mainly North of Hwy 2. The best thunder potential is across the
northern mountains starting late morning and lasting through the
early evening. Highs will be in the upper 60s and 70s. Lows will
be in the 40s to low 50s. /JDC

Wednesday through Sunday: What is left of an upper trough lingers
over the region on Wednesday. This combined with afternoon heating
and lingering boundary layer moisture will trigger another round
of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern
mountains. On Thursday the trough axis lingers with 500mb temps
down to near -18C and thus hard to discount a couple pop up
afternoon showers or thunderstorms over the mountains mainly near
the Canadian border where the NBM is showing a 15-20% chance of
thunderstorms. The trough finally pushes out on Friday and is
replaced by a short wave ridge which persists into Saturday ahead
of the next weather system. This will allow temperatures to warm
up, with highs reaching the mid 80s to mid 90s on Saturday. Sunday
ensembles are in good agreement that an upper low passing by to
our north across Central BC will send a dry cold front across the
region. The clusters are in good agreement that this will bring
cooler temperatures into Central WA...but for Eastern WA/N Idaho
there there is a 35% chance that Sunday will be as warm as
Saturday. It will all come down to timing of the cold front and
thus there is some increased uncertainty with Sunday temperatures.
The warm and dry conditions combined with breezy winds will
elevate fire weather concerns, but too far out to get into the
details. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
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18Z TAFS: Showers have begun to develop across southeast
Washington and the southern Panhandle and the eastern Columbia
Basin late this morning. Showers will continue to develop over the
next couple hours across much of eastern Washington and north
Idaho through 06-08Z. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing
brief downpours, small hail and gusty winds. Persistent gusty
winds will continue through the Cascade valleys and the lee of the
Cascades through the evening with with gusts up to 30 knots.
Models are suggesting the development of marginal VFR ceilings to
develop across far northeast Washington and north Idaho between 12
to 18Z on Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a 20-40%
chance for thunderstorms to form over the TAF sites east of KEAT.
There is a 30-50% chance for ceilings below 3000 feet at Coeur
d`Alene, Sandpoint, Deer Park after 12Z.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Spokane        67  43  69  45  76  49 /  40  40  40   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  64  43  64  43  74  46 /  30  50  60  10   0   0
Pullman        61  42  66  42  74  46 /  40  50  20   0   0   0
Lewiston       68  49  74  49  83  53 /  50  50  20   0   0   0
Colville       67  36  67  38  74  41 /  60 100  80  20  20   0
Sandpoint      64  42  60  41  70  44 /  40  70  90  40  20   0
Kellogg        60  45  61  45  71  48 /  40  60  70  20  10   0
Moses Lake     72  45  76  46  83  52 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      70  49  76  51  80  56 /  10   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           72  45  74  47  81  51 /  50  40  30  10  10   0
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&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$