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578
FXUS61 KPHI 151743
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
143 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes this morning will
move off the New England coast on Sunday, and then become
stationary just off the East Coast on Monday. The high is
forecast to strengthen and build westward next week eventually
to cover much of the eastern United States.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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1025mb high pressure centered over Lake Huron early this
afternoon will track across the Northeast tonight and off the
New England coast Sunday. Wind flow around the high will result
in a northerly flow through tonight, except for onshore
seabreezes at the coastline. Winds become east to southeasterly
on Sunday. The high and associated subsidence will keep the sky
mainly clear through Sunday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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With time, the surface high will migrate eastwards as a warm
front from the southwest lifts northwards. While this warm front
looks to cross through our region around the time frame of
early Monday, the surface high pressure offshore looks to still
hold influence over us into Tuesday.

The warm front posed to pass through early Monday will bring
decent warm air advection to the region, ushering the start of
higher temperatures for the week. Highs mainly in the upper 80s
to low 90s anticipated for Monday. The warm front is not
expected to bring any precipitation to the region.

A sea-breeze will likely develop on Sunday given the weak synoptic
flow in the forecast. This sea-breeze could penetrate well in-land
by the late afternoon into evening hours.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Summary...Few changes to the long term. Hot but mainly dry
forecast.

The synoptic pattern and evolution is nearly certain for the long
term. An upper-level ridge over the eastern CONUS Monday will build
to the north with time. By the later Tuesday time frame, the strong
ridge will look to be centered directly over the northeastern CONUS
and will likely stay in place for quite a bit. The ensembles suggest
it is not until around the time frame of Thursday/Friday that the
ridge and its associated axis will begin to break down and flatten
out some.

We could see heights of 594-600 dam over us Tuesday into at least
Thursday. At the surface level, high pressure centered offshore
looks to largely control the region into the end of the week. Though
some rounds of shortwave energy may pester the region for much of
the week, any precipitation development should be largely suppressed
given the pattern.

We are mainly looking at a dry forecast into the end of the week
with very warm temperatures for each day. High temperatures at least
in the 90s should be anticipated at this point for Tuesday,
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. It is still a little too early
to discuss details regarding any potential for heat headlines,
but the potential will only grow with time as the week
progresses. Tuesday looks to be first good chance for some
headlines.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon...VFR. North to northwest winds 10-15 knots.

Tonight...VFR. N to NNE winds 5 knots or less.

Sunday...VFR. East to Southeast winds around 10 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...No significant weather.
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&&

.MARINE...
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No headlines expected. N winds 10-15 kts this afternoon,
becoming light and variable overnight. East to southeast winds
10 to 15 knots Sunday. Seas 2-4 feet.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...no marine headlines expected. A
couple things we will watch: a few gusts around 20 kts are
possible on Monday for all zones, and seas may get close to 5
feet on Monday north of Manasquan NJ on Monday.

Rip Currents...

Saturday, north to northeast winds will increase to 10-15
mph with gusts around 20 mph. With 3-4 foot waves offshore and
an 8 second period, this will lead to 2-3 foot waves in the
surf zone. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents for New Jersey and
Delaware Beaches

With lighter winds and smaller waves on Sunday, there will be a
LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
everywhere.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
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&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Franklin/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...Franklin/MJL
SHORT TERM...AKL/Wunderlin
LONG TERM...AKL/Wunderlin
AVIATION...AKL/Franklin/MJL/Wunderlin
MARINE...AKL/Franklin/MJL/Wunderlin