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402
FXUS62 KRAH 250158
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
958 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will pass over the area late tonight through
early Tuesday, then push quickly offshore late Tuesday, allowing hot
and humid conditions to return for Wednesday. Another front will
approach from the northwest early Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 955 PM Monday...

The 00Z upper air analyses show the H25 trough over the Northeast
and mid-Atlantic, while the H5 trough was slightly east, mainly
along the East Coast. There is still plenty of moisture evident at
H7 and H85, although some drier air was creeping into the northern
Piedmont. At the surface, the front has progressed through most of
central NC, however there are still some mid 70s dewpoints over the
Coastal Plain as of 01Z. Dewpoints elsewhere generally range from
mid 60s to mid 60s. The surface high, over OH/PA as of 01Z, should
settle ssewd to over WV/VA tonight. The question is if the surface
boundary will remain stalled over the Coastal Plain tonight or
whether/how far the high will help push it sewd. Where the higher
dewpoint air remains, some fog/low stratus will be possible.
Otherwise, expect lows mainly in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees,
although a few isolated spots could stay a bit above 70.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Monday...

Tuesday will be largely precipitation free across central NC as the
trough exits into the Atlantic and is replaced by weak ridging over
the Southeast US. Our region will also be under a much drier more
stable airmass behind the cold front. Surface high pressure over the
Appalachians in the morning will move east into the Atlantic during
the day, shifting the low-level flow to a more southerly direction.
Thus there will be very little to no change in temperatures from
today despite today`s cold frontal passage, with highs again in the
lower-to-mid-90s. Where there will be a noticeable difference is the
humidity, as dew points will mix out into the upper-50s to lower-60s
in the afternoon. So heat indices will be very similar to the air
temperatures. The one possible area of precipitation is from
Fayetteville south and east, where some CAMS (mainly the HRRR and
RAP), show enough instability for a few showers and storms to
develop along the sea breeze. But the other CAMS are much less
impressed. Given this and the unfavorable upper pattern, only carry
slight chance POPs there at this time. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the upper-60s to lower-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
As of 205 PM Monday...

...Hot Temperatures Will Continue through Next Weekend...

...Seasonable/Climo Rain Chances Return...

Heat and humidity increases Wednesday ahead of another approaching
weak cold front that will cross the area Wednesday night/early
Thursday. Wednesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, with
afternoon temps expected to top out between 95-100, and heat indices
in the upper 90s NW to 100-105 over central and eastern NC. While
some isolated pre-frontal convection is possible Wednesday
afternoon/evening, the bulk of central NC will most likely see it`s
rainfall from an ana-frontal rain band that will cross the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. There`s a very plausible chance that
the front could stall out or quickly lift back north as a warm front
on Friday, resulting in additional rain chances. Right now,
precipitation amounts looks to be light, with average rainfall
amounts expected to be between 0.10-0.25", with some localized
heavier amounts.

The heat should briefly moderate on Thursday with troughing moving
through. However, the subtropical ridge initially centered over the
southern Plains will expand eastward into the Southeast Friday and
over next weekend, bringing a renewed threat for hazardous heat with
heat indices again in the upper 90s NW to 100 to 105 across central
and eastern NC.

Another cold front, potentially the strongest of the week, is slated
to cross the area late Sunday into the day on Monday, and will bring
additional rain chances in showers and storms, and another brief
stint of cooler, less humid conditions early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 PM Monday...

There will generally be VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF
period. The only threat of some sub-VFR conditions would be at FAY
and RWI. The cold front has pushed through, although some of the
recent CAMs indicate there could be an isolated shower at FAY or RWI
between 00-03z. Confidence on this occurring is too low to mention
in the TAF. Moisture will be slow to erode at FAY/RWI overnight
tonight and because of that, some low stratus or fog could form at
these terminals into early Tue. Confidence is overall low but was
high enough to mention in a TEMPO group with low 70s dewpoints over
the Coastal Plain. VFR should prevail at all sites Tue morning and
afternoon, though a low-end chance of a shower or storm could form
at FAY in the aftn/eve with the sea-breeze.

Looking beyond 00z Wed: Some early morning stratus or fog could form
Wed morning. Isolated late day storms are possible late Wed,
followed by a better chance of afternoon/evening showers and storms
Thu, along with possible sub-VFR ceilings Thu morning. Otherwise,
outside of any storms, the risk of widespread sub-VFR conditions is
low through Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 24:
KRDU: 99/2010
KFAY: 102/1914

June 25:
KRDU: 100/1952
KFAY: 102/1914

June 26:
KRDU: 102/1952
KFAY: 101/1951

June 27:
KFAY: 102/1998


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 24:
KGSO: 76/2015
KRDU: 76/1888
KFAY: 79/2010

June 25:
KFAY: 75/1952

June 26:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 76/1902
KFAY: 76/1997

June 27:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 77/1998

June 28:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 78/1914

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...Kren/Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH