-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
126
FXUS62 KRAH 190741
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
340 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas
through much of this week. Moisture will increase across the area
late this week into this weekend, bringing some increased rain
chances to the Sandhills/Southern Coastal Plain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 313 AM Wednesday...

Water vapor imagery this morning continues to highlight the
anomalous mid-level ridge anchored over the eastern seaboard.  At
the sfc, latest analysis depicted a 1026 mb high off the Delmarva
coast. Sfc dewpoints across central NC remain in the lower to mid
60s (the plume of higher dew points > 70 has largely been displaced
well to our north and west).  The MIMIC-TPW satellite has remotely-
sensed PWAT of 0.5 to 1 inch across central NC, with a swath of
drier air over the north Atlantic retrograding towards the eastern
seaboard.  This drier air will continue to advect into our area
today promoting largely dry conditions and good mixing of dew points
later this afternoon. The HRRR and NamNest do simulate some isolated
decaying showers moving onshore and possibly reaching our far
eastern areas later this afternoon.  However, given the anomalous
dry air in place, highly doubtful that any of these showers measure.
While temperatures will again max in the upper 80s to lower 90s
under ely sfc flow, heat indices will remain well under advisory
criteria. Still, given the persistent hot temperatures this past
week, make sure to practice heat safety if spending considerable
amount of time outside.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 313 AM Wednesday...

The anomalous mid-level ridge will de-amplify a bit Thursday as the
center of the anticyclone retrogrades over the southeast. The sfc
high will remain anchored offshore, positioned to continue light
esely flow and a steady stream of drier air across central NC (PWAT
remains ~70 to 80 % below normal Thursday). As such, max temps will
remain near 90 and heat indices will remain under criteria as dew
points once again mix out into the lower 60s. Void of lifting
mechanism and moisture, expect another dry weather day on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 340 AM Wednesday...

..Dangerously Hot Temperatures Expected this Weekend and into Early
Next Week...

The anomalously strong upper level anticyclone will shift westward
while undergoing gradual weakening through the weekend, before
finally giving way to a northern stream trough that will traverse
the NE US and southern Canada late Sunday and into early next week.
Downstairs at the surface, SELY flow around Bermuda high pressure
will lead to increasing humidity through the weekended, with the
high moving farther out into the Atlantic as a cold front approaches
from the west late in the weekend and into early next week.

The main weather headlines will be in the intensifying heat and
humidity over the weekend and continuing into early next week. Low-
level thicknesses and humidity will steadily rise as the low-level
flow becomes increasingly southerly. By Sunday, highs are forecast
to reach the mid/upper with lower to mid 70 dewpoints becoming more
prevalent across central NC. This combination will support heat
indices of 100-105 F, with Sunday and Monday expected to pose the
greatest heat risk. This level of heat will affect anyone without
effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.

In terms of rain chances, any rain associated with the inverted sfc
trough tracking westward and onshore over FL/GA on Fri will remain
south of the area. Aside from some isolated seabreeze showers/storms
across the far SE zones Friday and Saturday afternoons, mostly dry
conditions will persist through Saturday. Rain chances should begin
to increase Sunday and especially Monday with the approach of the
northern stream trough and attendant front from the NW, that will
have the potential to stall or wash out across the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 216 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hr TAF period as dry high
pressure remains anchored just off the Carolina coast. Light ely sfc
flow will continue through the period.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions should persist through Saturday.
Moisture and the chance for showers will return late this weekend,
especially near KFAY/KRDU/KRWI.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Leins
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...Luchetti