-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
102
FXUS63 KSGF 231740
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues through Monday with highs in the 90s.
  Humidity on the increase with heat index values between 100 to
  110.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area Monday from
  noon until 8 PM.

- Daily high temperatures in the 90s through this week, with
  heat indices ranging in the 90s and into the 100s.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Wednesday, with
  highest chances (40 to 60%) late Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

As of 230 AM, a cold front is currently draped from southwest
to northeast across central Missouri, which has sparked
convection over both the Kansas City metro and the St. Louis
metro during the late evening hours last night and into the
early morning hours today. Some of the CAMs showed showers and
isolated thunderstorms pushing into the area along the frontal
passage through the remainder of the morning, however with the
dry airmass in place, any convection that has tried to push
southeast into the area has so far dissipated before reaching
us, with the exception of a few isolated showers in Dent county.
Decided to keep pops between 15-25% along/east of Hwy 65 to
account for the low potential of an additional shower or two,
however most locations will likely remain dry.

The main topic of discussion for today`s forecast will be on
the heat that`s expected to continue over the region. Models
show an upper level high pressure system over the OklaTex
region, allowing 850mb temperatures to climb in the 22-25 C
range. As a result, afternoon high temperatures will climb into
the low to mid 90s, with the hotter end of that range over the
MO/AR border and far southeast KS/southwest MO. With scattered
cloud cover dissipating through the morning and early afternoon
hours, associated Heat Indices will be in the 95-100 range
(north of Highway 60) and the 100-105 degree range south of
Highway 60. Therefore, the southern portion of the CWA will be
right on the edge of Heat Advisory Criteria (Heat Index 105+). Decided
against issuing a Heat Advisory for today, as that 105 degree
mark will be more localized. That being said, the early morning
hours offered little to no relief from the heat as overnight
lows have remained in 70s, so take the appropriate precautions
to stay safe from the heat, especially those who are more
vulnerable to heat related illnesses.

For tonight, the area will once again see little to no relief
from the heat as overnight lows are progged to remain in the
upper 60s (eastern Ozarks) to mid 70s (west of Hwy 65).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Heat Continues:
Heading into Monday, the upper level high pressure system that
retrograded westward and centered over Texas will continue to
remain in place. Additionally, a surface low situated in Canada
will allow for the aforementioned frontal boundary (that will
continue to sweep through the area today) to lift back into the
area as a warm front, bringing a warmer airmass over the
Missouri Ozarks. As a result, Monday will be the hottest day in
the forecast period, with widespread afternoon highs in the
95-100 degree range and heat indices ranging between 104-110
degrees. Due to the high confidence in the temperature forecast,
we went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for the entire CWA on
Monday from noon until 8 PM. With the entire area in the Major
(3 of 4) to Extreme (4 of 4) categories in the experimental Heat
Risk Index, the previous AFD offered important words of wisdom
which will be repeated here: It is of the utmost importance to
practice heat safety by checking on family members, keeping cool
in air conditioned places, staying hydrated even if not feeling
thirsty, and taking frequent breaks if working outside for
extended periods of time. Remember to check on those that may be
more vulnerable to heat-related illnesses.

Through the remainder of the week, the upper level high pressure
system will continue to play a major factor in the hot
temperatures as the ridging pattern moves through the region.
Afternoon high temperatures in the 90s will be likely on a daily
basis through at least next Saturday, with heat indices ranging
in the 90s and into the low 100s (up to 105). Future Heat
Advisories will need to be assessed as we move forward into the
forecast period.

Rain Chances Tuesday Night into Wednesday:
Despite the ridging pattern dominating the week, a potent
shortwave will push through the region Tuesday into Wednesday,
pushing an associated cold front through the area. With hot and
humid conditions already in place, the additional forcing will
allow for showers and thunderstorms to be possible (40-60%
chance), especially overnight Tuesday night. There is the
potential for some lingering precipitation into Wednesday (30%
chances), especially for areas east of Hwy 65, however
confidence in this scenario remains low.

Additional potential for another system by next weekend:
Models show an upper level low progressing across the
CONUS/Canadian border towards the end of the week and into the
weekend, bringing another potent shortwave and an associated
cold front through the area by Saturday. As this is several days
out, any confidence in the set-up is very low and will need to
be assessed as we get closer to this timeframe. Current chances
of rain are 30-40% over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period at all
TAF sites. A frontal boundary is lingering around the area and
will provide light and variable winds as it lifts back north
throughout the period. Winds will settle on S`ly at 5-10 kts by
14Z. Otherwise, high clouds will remain scattered. A cumulus
field has developed near BBG along the front is back-building
into SGF and JLN and will linger there for the 19-00Z
timeframe. These will stay above 4 kft, however.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024


Record High Temperatures:

June 23:
KJLN: 98/2009

June 24:
KSGF: 99/1988
KJLN: 100/1954
KVIH: 99/1901
KUNO: 100/1952

June 25:
KSGF: 99/2012

June 28:
KJLN: 102/2012

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 23:
KSGF: 77/2015

June 24:
KSGF: 77/1934

June 25:
KSGF: 76/1952

June 26:
KSGF: 76/1937

June 28:
KSGF: 78/1936

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Price