-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
880
FXUS63 KSGF 201050
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
550 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend ahead into the weekend with highs in the 90s.
  Humidity on the increase with heat index values around 100 to
  105 by late weekend into early next week.

- Weak frontal passage featuring scattered shower and
  thunderstorm chances (10 to 30%) Saturday night into Sunday
  morning.

- Hot and humid conditions persist into next week, with the
  return of daily afternoon/evening scattered thunderstorm
  chances (10 to 30%).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Today-Tonight: An upper-level ridge is building back into the
region early this morning, supporting a continued warming trend
and dry conditions. For today, a mix of sun and clouds as highs
reach into the upper 80s to around 90. This is around 5 degrees
above normal for mid to late June. NBM depicts the highest
probabilities (40-60%) of exceeding 90 degrees across portions
of central Missouri. Meanwhile, dewpoints in the middle to upper
60s will support heat index values into the middle 90s this
afternoon. Humidity will trend upward into the later part of the
weekend. Quiet weather continues into tonight, with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Friday-Sunday: The upper-level ridge and associated high
pressure continue to build across the area into the weekend,
with most of the area into the lower 90s by Saturday. This will
be supplemented by heat index values reaching into the middle to
upper 90s. Dry conditions persist through most of Saturday
before a weak frontal passage slides through the region Saturday
night. In general, moisture return into the area will remain
rather limited with a subtle shortwave translating across the
area. At this time, confidence remains low on shower and
thunderstorm coverage, with PoPs highest across central Missouri
(10-30%). Given the lack of any adequate shear, thunderstorms
would be pulse like in nature. Primary hazards would be brief
heavy downpours and lightning. By Sunday, height rises behind
the front will feature additional warming, as hot and humid
conditions overspread the area. Dewpoints on Sunday are forecast
to be in the lower 70s, supporting heat index values into the
upper 90s to around 105. The experimental NWS HeatRisk
highlights widespread Moderate (level 3 of 4) impacts across the
area by Sunday into next week. This is defined as the level of
heat that affects anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration.

Monday-Wednesday: By Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures push
into the middle to upper 90s with heat values around 100 to
105+. Additionally, overnight lows remain mild in the lower to
middle 70s providing minimal overnight relief from the heat. A
prolonged period of excessive heat from late weekend into next
week may further amplify heat impacts to vulnerable populations
across the area. While this is not an anomalous heat for our
area, potential heat related impacts needs to be monitored
closely as it is the first taste of the Summertime regime and
potential heat headlines. While confidence is increasing in a
warming trend with above normal temperatures (5 to 10 degrees),
ensemble guidance hints at the upper-level pattern becoming more
northwesterly with the ridge centered further west. This
pattern would support the return of daily shower and
thunderstorm chances (10-30%). Complete washouts are not
expected, with primary timing of any convection driven by
daytime heating in the afternoon and evening. The CPC and CIPS
Extended Analogs continue to highlight above normal temperatures
persisting through late June into early July.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF
period. Mid to high level clouds persist through much of the TAF
period, with light southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024


Record High Temperatures:

June 21:
KVIH: 96/1952

June 22:
KSGF: 96/2016

June 23:
KJLN: 98/2009

June 24:
KSGF: 99/1988
KJLN: 100/1954
KVIH: 99/1901


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 23:
KSGF: 77/2015

June 24:
KSGF: 77/1934

June 25:
KSGF: 76/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Perez