-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
861
FXUS62 KTBW 211122
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
722 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
There continues to be a small chance for some showers and storms
to impact the southwest Florida sites, but believe the overall
chance is low, so removed any mention from the 12Z TAFs. Rain
chances return for all sites starting tomorrow afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Tropical moisture, a tropical disturbance, and dry air. An easterly
flow continues through the column as florida remains sandwiched
between a ridge over the SE CONUS and a Central American Gyre in the
NW Caribbean Sea. Sprawling tropical moisture is evident in water
vapor satellite imagery over S FL and west into the Gulf of
Mexico. Meanwhile, a disorganized low continues to propagate NW
towards the FL/GA line. In between these features is a pocket of
drier air and subsidence - the latter of which is a product of
venting off the low. While a narrow region, this had a noticeable
impact on our weather yesterday, and is expected to do so again
today.

While the Nature Coast could see some storms today, the Tampa Bay
area is unlikely to see hardly any. Warm and dry is the theme. SWFL,
on the other end of this zone, could see a couple storms creep in
today; but this is likely to be delayed with drier air still playing
a role. Storms should also be more limited in depth and intensity as
well.

The low off the FL Coast is expected to move inland later today or
tonight. Once that happens, this feature will quickly dissipate and
the Bermuda High can build back in. Over the weekend, storms should
again become more seasonable in response, with scattered to numerous
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. An ESE flow is forecast to
remain in place, meaning that the highest coverage of storms is
likely to settle along the I-75 corridor of the west coast late in
the day.

Sunday looks to be a transition day as the Bermuda high repositions
farther east, ushering in a SW flow that settles across the region
on Monday and lasts through the remainder of the week.
Climatologically, southwest flow with forecasted PWATs around or
exceeding 2 inches, which is what is currently forecasted, tends to
be quite warm and muggy overnight and fairly soggy during the
daytime hours. This is the current expectation for next week: a
humid but common rainy season pattern.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Winds and seas continue to subside as the gradient weakens across
coastal waters. Only isolated to scattered storms are forecast today
with some drier air in place. However, Saturday`s forecast favors
scattered to numerous thunderstorms late in the afternoon and
evening that move offshore and impact nearshore coastal waters.
Sunday is a transition day with scattered to numerous storms
continuing before southwest flow settles in for next week, leading
to potentially widespread activity across coastal waters at nearly
anytime. Winds are expected to be light outside of thunderstorms,
with no significant wave heights forecasted through the middle of
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Today is the driest day of the forecast period. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are then expected for the next
seven days as a typical rainy season pattern sets up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  79  93  78 /  20  10  60  50
FMY  94  77  93  77 /  20  30  70  50
GIF  93  77  95  76 /  30  20  60  50
SRQ  92  77  94  76 /  10  10  60  50
BKV  92  73  95  73 /  40  20  60  50
SPG  92  82  94  81 /  20  10  60  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Aviation...05/Carlisle
Previous...Flannery