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615
FXUS62 KTBW 191347
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
947 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 946 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Upper troughing and a surface low pressure system sits off the mid-
Atlantic and New England states. The associated surface troughing
and frontal boundary extends southward through the western Atlantic,
across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and storms have
been firing over the eastern gulf waters through the morning and
will slowly traverse eastward along the coastline and eventually
over the interior later today. The 12Z morning sounding is still
showing abundant moisture with a PWAT of 2.08 inches, enough to
support scattered showers and storms over SW FL and the interior
this afternoon. Looking at the water vapor imagery, there is some
drier air to the north and west of the area. This drier air will
make its way into Florida by Friday and into the weekend with lower
rain chances expected. No changes needed to current forecast.

The tropics remain somewhat active with 3 areas of interest that the
National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on. 2 of these areas are
in the central Atlantic and has a 20 and 30 percent chance of
development over the next 7 days. The other area that models are
hinting at development will be in the northwest Caribbean and has a
40 percent chance of development over the next 7 days. None of these
systems pose an immediate threat to Florida, but the one in the
Caribbean will be closely monitored over the coming week.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 946 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Showers and storms
continue to form over the eastern gulf waters and will approach the
west coast of Florida through the morning hours. Will cover this
with VCTS at all terminals through 15Z. No weather restrictions are
expected at all terminals after 15Z. Winds will remain less than 10
knots outside of thunderstorm activity.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 946 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Showers and storms continue to fire along a weak frontal boundary
that`s extending through the eastern gulf waters. Light northwest
winds less than 10 knots will persist through this evening. By
Friday morning, the front moves southeast and dissipates allowing
for high pressure to build in from the north. This will produce a
northeast through easterly wind flow over the weekend, but remaining
15 knots of less. With high pressure building into the area, some
drier air will filter into the region resulting in lower rain
chances over the weekend and into next week. No headlines are
expected.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  75  90  75 /  30   0  10  10
FMY  90  75  92  75 /  60  30  40  20
GIF  92  74  92  74 /  40  10  20   0
SRQ  90  75  92  74 /  30   0  20  20
BKV  91  71  91  70 /  20   0  10   0
SPG  90  79  91  77 /  30   0  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Anderson