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084
FXUS62 KTBW 211757
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
157 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.DISCUSSION...
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Easterly flow continues aloft over the region this afternoon as
Florida remains situated between high pressure over the eastern half
of the country and broad low pressure near the Yucatan/southwest
Gulf region. At the surface, low pressure spins off the northeast
Florida coast and is gradually making its way west-northwestward and
should reach land by tonight. Kind of an interesting setup overall
as higher moisture is in place across north Florida near the low and
deep tropical moisture remains over south Florida extending
westward, but there is also a sliver of drier air right over the
central part of the peninsula. This overall pattern should hold for
the rest of the day, even as the low creeps toward the FL/GA line.
For our local area, this will generally mean higher rain chances
over the Nature Coast, with much lower chances elsewhere. The
exception could be the southwest Florida region as models are
showing some moisture return late, but chances are not quite as high
for these locations.

The Atlantic ridge builds back in for the weekend, with an east-
southeast low-level wind across the region. This flow is on the
lighter side, which will give the west coast sea breeze a chance to
move inland some, leading to a fairly typical summertime pattern
favoring the highest rain chances near the I-75 corridor in the
afternoon and evening hours.

We then transition to a southwest flow for Monday and keep with that
through the rest of the week, along with sufficient available
moisture. This will favor some showers and storms offshore overnight
moving toward the coast for the morning hours and then inland and
eastward for the rest of each day.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS)
Mainly VFR conditions are expected, though rain chances have
increased somewhat for the TAF sites. Uncertainty still exists,
however, so feel that VCTS is the best route at this time. A quiet
overnight period is expected then rain chances increase even more
for tomorrow afternoon and evening.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Southeast flow will remain over the waters through the weekend
except for a turn onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. Winds
become more southwesterly on Monday and continue through the rest of
the week. No headlines are expected, though higher shower and storm
chances are in the forecast starting Saturday.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TPA  79  93  78  91 /  40  70  40  60
FMY  77  93  76  91 /  30  70  60  70
GIF  77  95  76  93 /  40  70  50  70
SRQ  78  94  76  91 /  20  60  50  50
BKV  73  95  74  93 /  50  70  40  70
SPG  82  94  81  91 /  30  60  50  50
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&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

05/Carlisle