Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --386 FXUS62 KTBW 151357 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 957 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 956 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A weak trough axis lingers across the area with weak ridging trying to build in across the state. South Florida continues to experience periods of rain and more showers are in place across the central coastal waters this morning. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop across the CWA mainly in the afternoon with some gusty southerly flow in place. The area transitions to more of an easterly flow tomorrow, which should focus more scattered showers and storms closer to the coast for Sunday afternoon. Current forecast is on track with this and have no updates planned.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(12Z TAFS) Issued at 956 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Light SE flow currently in place across the terminals with some gusty showers across the southern ones. Showers and storms will increase in coverage in the early afternoon as winds become more southerly and gusty, with MVFR to IFR conditions possible in the storms, then should diminish through the later afternoon. Winds become light and more SE overnight.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 956 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Southerly flow today will become easterly for Sunday as stronger ridging builds into the area from the NE. Easterly flow will then continue through the rest of the period, with scattered showers and storms possible mainly in the later afternoon and evening as storms push offshore from diurnal convection over land each day. Current forecast is on track with all of this and have little changes for the update.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 77 91 77 / 60 30 50 20 FMY 86 76 90 76 / 70 30 50 20 GIF 90 75 92 75 / 60 20 40 20 SRQ 88 77 92 75 / 60 30 50 20 BKV 91 72 93 71 / 60 30 50 20 SPG 88 80 92 79 / 60 30 50 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle