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640
FXUS62 KTBW 222330
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
730 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
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Issued at 720 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024
High pressure surface and aloft persists over the area with partly
cloudy skies and warm temperatures. Northeast boundary layer flow
riding up against the west coast sea breeze boundary is generating
very isolated evening showers near the coast. Precipitation will
push offshore and dissipate by midnight with skies becoming mostly
clear across the forecast area. Little change expected on Monday
as high pressure remains over the area with continued very warm
temperatures under partly cloudy skies.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Weather remains pretty quiet across our area for Sunday and early
next week. Ridging will remain to our north but will drift from the
Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic. PWs will remain at or below 1.5. The
lower PW along with ridging remaining to our north will limit shower
activity each day with only isolated chances across the area.

Ridging will continue to drift into the Atlantic causing what we
call a break between it and a trough pushing the midwest. At the
same time models are showing possible tropical development in the
southern Caribbean Sea. IF something develops it would head
towards this break. Right now timing, strength, and where this
break will be is still very uncertain. However, at a minimum we
will see moisture increasing which will result in better storm
chances from Wednesday through next weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours under mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies SCT040-050.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Weather looks to be quiet for Sunday and early next week as
ridging remains to our north with winds out of the east or
northeast around 5 to 10 knots. There is still a lot of
uncertainty when it comes to possible tropical development in the
southern Caribbean Sea and then lift north. At a minimum we will
see winds and seas increasing with hazardous boating conditions
starting on Wednesday through the end of the week.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through the
weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TPA  77  92  76  93 /   0  10   0  10
FMY  76  92  77  94 /  10  30  10  40
GIF  75  93  74  94 /   0  10   0  10
SRQ  76  92  75  94 /   0  20  10  20
BKV  71  93  71  94 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  79  91  79  94 /   0  10  10  10
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&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt