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463
FXUS62 KTBW 220805
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
405 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A typical summertime pattern is settling in across the region. With
a broad upper-level ridge across the Southeast, the Bermuda High has
settled in to the east. In response, a light ESE flow is in place.
Given ample moisture (PWATs exceeding 2 inches as of 3AM),
instability (MCLAPE of 1800 J/KG MLCAPE as of 3AM), and the sea
breeze this afternoon to act as a forcing mechanism, scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today. The
expectation is that this activity will consolidate across West
Central Florida by late afternoon. While gusty winds are frequent
lightning are likely, the greatest concern is for heavy rainfall.
Model forecast soundings support a classic setup for this with deep
moisture, a deep and narrow CAPE profile, and virtually no steering
flow (meaning convection is likely to be more stationary than not).
This may lead to localized flooding in urban areas and places with
poor drainage. Overall, though, the rainfall should be beneficial.

Today really kicks off what looks to be an extended period of this
similar pattern. Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms are expected each day as high pressure
remains in control. By early next week, though, it looks like the
Bermuda High may slide a bit farther east, ushering in a light WSW
flow. This could lead to more storms in the morning across the Gulf
that drift onshore after sunrise. As this activity pushes inland,
continued forecast PWATs over 2 inches could yield additional
convection after a brief recovery period, meaning some places may
have a chance to see more than one storm each day.

All the while, warm and muggy conditions will persist. This combo
favors heat indices of 100 to 105 across the region each afternoon,
with little reprieve given the light flow. Overnight lows along the
coast are likely to struggle to dip below 80 during the overnight
hours next week. Hopefully, the west coast will be rewarded with
more storms to at least provide us with more beneficial rains as the
rainy season truly gets underway.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, with a time-frame for
impacts generally between 21Z and 02Z for coastal terminals (a
little earlier inland). There will most certainly be a window for on-
station impacts at most sites, but immediate coastal terminals
around Tampa Bay have the lowest confidence and certainty for when
that window will be. However, gusty winds and a brief period of IFR
conditions are possible for all terminals if a storm moves overhead.
Within a couple hours of sunset, storms should subside. A similar
pattern is likely to repeat again on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 400 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Quiet winds and seas are expected through the week as a ESE flow
gradually becomes WSW over the next few days. While the flow remains
ESE, the greatest potential for storms across coastal waters looks
to be late in the afternoon and into the evening. Strong gusty winds
could lead to locally hazardous seas as heavy rain limits
visibility. Once the winds veer more WSW, storms will become
increasingly likely at anytime, but favored more so during the
morning and midday time-frame.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 400 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Ample moisture is in place for the week ahead, leading to scattered
to numerous showers and storms each day. There are no significant
fire weather concerns at this time.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TPA  93  78  91  78 /  50  40  40  40
FMY  93  76  91  76 /  60  50  70  40
GIF  94  75  93  75 /  70  60  70  30
SRQ  93  76  91  76 /  50  50  40  50
BKV  94  73  93  73 /  40  30  50  40
SPG  93  81  92  81 /  40  40  40  50
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&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery