Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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119 FXUS63 KUNR 241632 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1032 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm today, isolated severe storms possible across southwest and south central South Dakota. - Warm/mainly dry conditions continue Tuesday/Wednesday. - Stormy end of the week with cooler temperatures for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday) Issued at 143 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Current surface map places low across northeastern Montana with warm front extending into central South Dakota. Trailing cold front is moving into eastern Montana. A bit of shower activity is clipping far northwestern South Dakota with main area of convection further north. Cold front reaches western South Dakota this morning, the stalls out across northern Nebraska this afternoon. Meager cold advection behind the front, highs will still be in the mid/upper 90s across southwest/south central South Dakota. Axis of greater buoyancy is located along the South Dakota/Nebraska border this afternoon into this evening. Weak impulse this afternoon may bring some high based convection across eastern Wyoming/southwest South Dakota with intensity trending upwards as storms move east. Initial storms will favor strong winds with available DCAPE. Further east, robust cap may limit thunderstorm development. If storms can tap into near surface environment, MLCAPE/shear will be sufficient for a few supercells with large hail threat. Showers/thunderstorms could linger through the night with weak theta-e advection. Flat ridge is located over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. With lack of forcing on Tuesday, any thunderstorm activity should be limited to the Black Hills. Weak impulse on Wednesday will bring small chance of storms over much of the forecast area. Upper trough moves across the Northern Rockies/Plains Thursday- Saturday with increasing chance of thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures. Thursday appears to be the best day for severe thunderstorms across the area. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1030 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur generally between 22Z this afternoon and 05Z this evening, mainly over western South Dakota, along and south of Interstate 90. Isolated thunderstorms will then be possible during the rest of the night. Except for any brief MVFR conditions in storms, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
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&& .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7 AVIATION...Pojorlie