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414
FXUS63 KUNR 241034
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
434 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today, isolated severe storms possible across southwest and
  south central South Dakota.

- Warm/mainly dry conditions continue Tuesday/Wednesday.

- Stormy end of the week with cooler temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 143 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Current surface map places low across northeastern Montana with
warm front extending into central South Dakota. Trailing cold
front is moving into eastern Montana. A bit of shower activity is
clipping far northwestern South Dakota with main area of
convection further north. Cold front reaches western South Dakota
this morning, the stalls out across northern Nebraska this
afternoon. Meager cold advection behind the front, highs will
still be in the mid/upper 90s across southwest/south central South
Dakota. Axis of greater buoyancy is located along the South
Dakota/Nebraska border this afternoon into this evening. Weak
impulse this afternoon may bring some high based convection across
eastern Wyoming/southwest South Dakota with intensity trending
upwards as storms move east. Initial storms will favor strong
winds with available DCAPE. Further east, robust cap may limit
thunderstorm development. If storms can tap into near surface
environment, MLCAPE/shear will be sufficient for a few supercells
with large hail threat. Showers/thunderstorms could linger through
the night with weak theta-e advection.

Flat ridge is located over the area Tuesday and Wednesday.
With lack of forcing on Tuesday, any thunderstorm activity should
be limited to the Black Hills. Weak impulse on Wednesday will
bring small chance of storms over much of the forecast area.

Upper trough moves across the Northern Rockies/Plains Thursday-
Saturday with increasing chance of thunderstorms along with cooler
temperatures. Thursday appears to be the best day for severe
thunderstorms across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued At 426 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur generally
between 22Z this afternoon and 05Z this evening, mainly over
western South Dakota, near and to the south of Interstate 90.
Isolated thunderstorms will then be possible during the rest of
the night. VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast
period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7
AVIATION...10