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351
FXUS61 KAKQ 060727
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
327 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Unsettled weather continues today. A cold front pushes across
the region late Thursday into Thursday evening, with a few
strong to severe storms possible. Behind the front, cooler,
drier conditions push into the region for Friday and Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid today with highs in the 80s. SW winds will gust 20-
30mph through the day.

- Marginal Risks for severe weather and excessive rain:
Thunderstorms expected ahead of a cold front this afternoon into the
late evening. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rain will be possible.

Conditions are mild, humid, and breezy early this morning with a
warm front situated to the N of the FA. Latest obs indicate temps in
the low-mid 70s with RHs around 80-90%. Winds along eastern portions
of the area are gusting 20-30mph. Mostly dry this morning, but
cannot rule out a few stray sprinkles along northern portions of the
area closer to the front. Meanwhile to the west, a cold front has
reached the western edge of Appalachia as of latest sfc analysis. As
the front approaches today, thunderstorms are expected to form out
ahead of it. Based on 00z CAMs, storms will likely be quick to
congeal into a linear feature. Initiation likely begins in the early
afternoon across the far NW. Storms then progress to the SE through
the evening and into the overnight hours. There should be no
shortage of instability given with guidance showing MLCAPE values in
the 1500-2000 J/kg range this afternoon. Shear will be modest, but
20-30kt of bulk shear should be enough to support some strong to
severe storms. Thus, SPC has placed the entire FA in a marginal risk
for severe weather. Main threat will be damaging winds. Will also
note that heavy rain and localized flooding is in the cards as well.
Latest HREF indicates PWs of 1.8-2.0". WPC has placed eastern
portions of the area in a marginal ERO.

Highs today will be in the upper 80s in the SE and mid-upper 80s
elsewhere. SW winds will be gusty through the day with gusts of 20-
30mph (highest along the coast). Showers/storms exit the area after
midnight tonight. Clouds will scatter out and winds diminish as the
front passes through. Lows will be in the low 60s inland and upper
60s-around 70 closer to the coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Drier weather returns for Friday and Saturday

- Another weak front pushes through the area Sunday, but should
  remain mostly dry

Drier weather moves in Fri behind the departing cold front as
dewpoints drop into the 50s. Aloft, an upper level low moves into
the Great Lakes on Fri, lingering into early next week. Guidance is
coming into better agreement with pushing the next weakening front
though the region on Sunday night, but it still appears the upper
level low is too close to the local area for enough instability for
much in the way of widespread showers and/or storms on Sunday. Have
introduced low-end Chc PoPs across far northern counties in the
afternoon with slight chc PoPs everywhere else except the SE. May
see slightly higher coverage later in the evening along the coast,
though.

Highs on Friday will reach the low 80s in the NW and on the Eastern
Shore, mid-80s elsewhere. A few degrees cooler on Saturday with
highs mostly in the low 80s. Warm again on Sunday will highs near 90
in the SE and mid-80s elsewhere.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Near to below normal temps expected in the early week period
  with warmer temps returning mid-week

- Mostly dry through the early week, but isolated showers
  possible

A bit cooler in the early week period as a fairly deep UL trough
sticks around over the east coast. Highs will be in the upper 70s in
the far N/NW and low 80s elsewhere for Mon and Tues. Temps warm up
into the mid-upper 80s again mid-week once the trough is offshore
and a ridge builds in behind it. Precip in the early week period is
a bit uncertain, but should mainly be dry. However, cannot rule out
a few stray showers with the trough axis nearby. Kept PoPs to Schc
or low-end Chc and limited to the afternoon/evening hours.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 06z TAF period. Starting the
period with SCT- BKN mid and high clouds. MVFR CIGs at SBY now
looking less likely based on recent guidance. However, may still
have a couple of hours of MVFR in the early morning hours.
Precip has mostly come to an end for the night, but a few
stray, light showers may still impact SBY through the morning.
Winds have turned to the SW and are gusting to ~20kt near the
coast. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday aftn. There
is a potential for a line of tstms to develop out ahead of the
front Thursday aftn/early evening. Brief flight restrictions are
possible (mainly in vsby) along with some locally stronger wind
gusts (potentially 30-40kt). Outside of tstms, will be gusty
through most of the period with gusts ~20kt.

Dry and VFR Friday and Saturday behind the cold front. Another
cold front will bring a slight chc of showers/tstms later
Sunday. A slight chc of showers/tstms lingers in to Monday, but
overall VFR conditions should prevail Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all local waters
except the upper tidal rivers.

- Chances for showers/storms could cause locally higher winds and
waves this evening and again on and Thursday afternoon and evening.

-Low rip current risk late this afternoon, with a moderate risk for
the northern beaches Thursday and Friday.

High pressure has moved well offshore ahead of an approaching trough
and cold front over the Midwest. Flow aloft is rather weak across
the local area with an upper trough moving into the western Great
Lakes and a building ridge over the SW CONUS. Winds locally are from
the S or SW 5-10 kt with waves/seas generally 1-3 ft.

Expect the pressure gradient to tighten this evening and tonight as
the cold front continues to approach the region from the NW. Winds
increase to 15-20 kt with gust to 25 kt over the Ches Bay, lower
James River, and Currituck Sound late this evening. Offshore, winds
will be more marginal but there will be a period with gusts near or
slightly higher than 25 kt. Confidence in seeing these winds is
highest for the waters near and north of Cape Charles Light but
opted to include all the coastal waters in SCA headlines to better
match with neighboring offices. Winds diminish quickly Thursday
morning but have extended the SCA headlines in the Ches Bay for a
few more hours than previously forecast. Offshore, winds will also
fall off quickly but there is some potential for 4-5 ft seas to
linger into the afternoon hours for the waters north of
Chincoteague. Will let subsequent shifts fine-tune the timing if
necessary. The surface cold front moves through the waters late
Thursday into the overnight with sub-SCA conditions prevailing late
week and into next weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Some nuisance to minor coastal flooding is forecast this evening and
tonight. Minor flooding is forecast for bay-facing portions of the
MD Eastern Shore including Cambridge, Bishops Head, and Crisfield
where a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued. Nuisance flooding is
possible along the tidal Potomac and Rappahannock Rivers tonight as
well and a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for this region.
Otherwise, most tidal sites in the middle and lower bay, including
up the James River, may see only very shallow flooding near the
waterfront over the next couple days.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633-
     637-638.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM/MAM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AJZ/AM
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...