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191
FXUS61 KALY 280128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
928 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Decreasing clouds and diminishing winds will allow for a cool
night tonight. Dry, sunny and comfortable weather is expected on
Friday. An approaching storm system will allow for some showers
and thunderstorms over the weekend, along with warmer and more
humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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.UPDATE...No significant changes with this update. High pressure
continues to build in from the west, with skies clearing and
winds gradually decreasing. Temperatures are already quite cool
for this hour, ranging from around 50 to the upper 60s.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0730]...Cooler, drier and breezy conditions in
place early this evening behind a secondary front that moved
across the area during the afternoon. There is a small cluster
of light showers moving into the W. Adirondacks, so added
mention of 20-30% PoPs for these widely scattered showers.
Elsewhere gradual clearing has been occurring, with this trend
continuing through the evening. Winds are still gusting 15-25
mph, but not as strong as earlier. A gradual decrease in winds
will also occur this evening.

A secondary cold front is crossing the area this afternoon,
allowing for much less humid air to work its way into the
region. Dewpoints have been falling through the 50s across the
area, with some 40s over the Adirondacks as well. Also, the
combination of good mixing thanks to the cool and dry air aloft
and a strong pressure gradient in place has been allowing for
breezy conditions, with westerly gusts over 25 mph at times this
afternoon. Some diurnally-driven cumulus and stratocu have
developed today as well. A few light showers did occur earlier
along the front, but these have dissipated with the drier air
moving into the region.

As the frontal boundary departs this evening and high pressure
builds towards the area, clouds will be decreasing and winds
will be diminishing for tonight. This will result in good
radiational cooling thanks to the cool, dry air mass in place,
clear skies and lighter winds. Temps will fall into the 40s to
low 50s across much of the area, which is rather chilly for late
June.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will be centered over the area on Friday
morning and will be sliding eastward through the day. Aloft, our
area will be under the influence of fairly zonal flow. Skies
will be clear through most of the day on Friday, with just some
thin cirrus by late in the day. Temps will be comfortable, with
highs mainly in the 70s and dewpoints very low in the 50s.
Clouds will be increasing on Friday night as the next system
approaches, but it should be dry with lows in the mid to upper
50s.

On Saturday, a warm front will be located southwest of the area
over the northern mid Atlantic States and will be gradually
lifting northeast towards the area, thanks to warm advection
from a southwesterly low level jet. Although the day will start
off dry on Saturday, there will be an increased threat for
showers and embedded t-storms by late Saturday, especially for
western areas. Model soundings suggest instability will be
fairly limited on Saturday and most guidance shows under 1000
J/kg of SBCAPE on Saturday. However, strong dynamics moving
towards the are will allow for increasing shear, with 0-6 km
bulk shear approaching 40 kts. Although the best severe threat
looks well southwest of the area, some isolated severe gusty
winds can`t be ruled out for late Saturday into Saturday evening
across western areas. SPC has these areas in a marginal risk for
severe t-storms. Temps will be in the 70s on Saturday, with
dewpoints creeping back up into the 60s.

For late Saturday evening into Saturday night, there looks to be
more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region, as
our area tries to get into the warm sector ahead of the
approaching frontal system and a surface trough is in place.
PWATs look very high, with values over 2.00 inches. Although
instability still looks limited, high PWATs, high FZL levels and
good precip efficiency make allow for some heavy downpours and
high rainfall amounts within shower and t-storms. There will be
a threat for localized flooding, especially in urban or low
lying areas, from any showers and t-storms, especially for
locations that see repeated downpours. It will remain mild and
muggy into Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The surface cold front will be passing through the area on
Sunday. There could be some additional showers and thunderstorms
ahead of the front on Sunday, although the timing doesn`t look
favorable for any stronger storms, as the front may cross early
in the day. It should get fairly warm on Sunday, with blended
guidance showing highs well into the 80s along with fairly
humid conditions, although dewpoints may start to fall late
behind the departing front.

Drier and more seasonable weather is expected for much of the
upcoming week. At this point, the forecast looks fairly dry with
little precip. A weak system could allow for some brief showers
towards the mid to latter portion of the week, but the threat
for stronger storms look lower than what we`ve seen in recent
days. Temps will start out seasonable in the upper 70s to low
80s to start the week, but will be creeping higher and above
normal by the late week, with dewpoints getting towards muggy
levels towards the 4th of July holiday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00z Saturday...Just FEW-SCT mid level clouds around
early this evening, otherwise skies will become SKC later this
evening with VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 24
hour TAF period with a very dry air mass in place. Some high
level cirrus clouds will move in Friday afternoon.

Winds initially will be northwest around 8-12 kt with gusts of
15-20 kt, gradually decreasing to around 5 kt or less by 05z.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...JPV