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283
FXUS61 KBGM 301747
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
147 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes through today with scattered severe
thunderstorms, especially in Northeast Pennsylvania and from
the Interstate 88 corridor southward in New York. Things shift
mainly east by early evening, with dry weather Monday and
Tuesday as high pressure takes over.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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144 PM Update...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for Northeast PA and
Sullivan County NY until 7 PM. Storms are mostly in Wyoming
Valley-Poconos now, but the lagging frontal boundary itself is
only now just reaching Bradford County to I-88 corridor, so not
clearing counties from the Watch just yet but soon we can start
trimming.

Earlier severe line of storms produced numerous damage reports
in southern Delaware/northern Wayne counties into Sullivan
County/Roscoe area. This occurred along an outflow boundary from
overnight convection. As heating has continued, new cells are
harnessing instability and a fair amount of shear, increasing
chances for scattered severe storms. The Storm Prediction
Center has placed most of Northeast PA, and counties along/south
of the I-88 Corridor into a Slight Risk. Damaging wind gusts
remain the primary threat, but isolated hail, localized heavy
rain/flooding, and even a brief tornado cannot be totally ruled
out. Risk will push mainly east of our area by 7 PM.

High pressure will build in behind the front tonight, however
upper trough remains overhead and some lake enhanced rain
showers will be possible across Central NY overnight, with fresh
Canadian air sending lows into the lower to mid 50s for most
locations. Monday itself looks dry with pleasant temperatures
in the upper 60s-mid 70s; some post-frontal clouds initially
but eventually mixing out to mostly sunny conditions in
afternoon. We clear out Monday night in what looks like a good
radiational cooling and valley fog setup, which chilly lows of
upper 40s-mid 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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320 AM Update...

Surface high pressure is in control during this period. Upper
level ridge moves in on Tuesday with surface high centering over
our region. Southerly flow returns with temperatures climbing
into the upper 70s to the low 80s during the day. Temperatures
are more mild overnight with lows ranging in the low to mid 60s
with a pocket of mid 50s over the Western Catskills region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
320 AM Update...

Upper level ridge with southerly flow holds for one more day keeping
temperatures warm on Wednesday with highs in the low to upper 80s.
High pressure slides to the east Wednesday with a system over the
midwest starting to approach our region by the evening. This kicks
off showers and thunderstorms that will continue into Thursday.
Thursday is a bit up in the air in terms of precip chances depending
on how far south the front can push before stalling out.
Another wave tracks northeast and into our region by Friday, with
more showers and thunderstorms. Models begin to diverge for the rest
of the period, therefore relied on NBM Pops through Sunday.
Temperatures during this time frame will be warm with highs ranging
in the low to upper 80s with overnight lows in the low to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Storm threat has cleared the NY terminals as of 18Z, and
cluster of nearby storms will exit KAVP area shortly after.
Associated front which has already cleared NY terminals will
pass through KAVP during midafternoon, which will allow it to
join the rest of the terminals with a postfrontal northwesterly
wind. Winds veer north-northwest or north late tonight into
Monday, with a gustiness that should prevent fog from forming
though there will probably be minor ceiling restrictions. KBGM-
KITH are more likely to manage fuel alternate required levels,
below 2000 feet, for a time during the predawn hours. Ceilings
will gradually lift and/or scatter during the day.

Outlook...

Monday night through early Tuesday morning...VFR except for
valley fog development likely for KELM.

Late Tuesday morning through Wednesday daytime...VFR.

Wednesday evening through Friday...Chances of showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MDP