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061
FXUS61 KBGM 062223
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
623 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, will push east
of the area this evening. Mostly dry conditions will follow, with
some valley fog developing late tonight. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected on Friday. This showery
pattern will continue through the weekend, with drier weather
expected by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move NE
PA over the next couple of hours till 7-8 pm. After that a
stray shower still can not be ruled out.


337 PM Update...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to push across the area this
afternoon, with the stronger storms generally extending south of
an apparent MCV. We`ve seen a few bowing segments, hints of
mesovortices, and wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range, but so far
nothing reaching severe limits. There`s still a very narrow
window, especially over eastern Otsego/Sullivan/Pike Counties
where the best instability is located.

Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions in the wake of this
system, though a very isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be
ruled out before sunset.

Winds tonight will become light and variable, with at least some
patchy valley fog developing.

Our upper low will move slowly to Georgian Bay by tomorrow
morning, with another shortwave/vort lobe rotating through the
area during the afternoon, well-timed with the diurnal cycle.
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms again, though cloud
cover will limit instability. One or two stronger storms can`t
be ruled out, especially given fairly strong 0-6km bulk shear.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
235 PM Update...

An upper-level low will hang around just north of the region
through the weekend, maintaining chances for light rain showers
through Saturday A shortwave propagating eastward into Central
NY and NE PA along the south side of the upper-level low Sunday
will bring some more intense rain showers. Generally, we`re
looking at up to a quarter of an inch of rainfall between
Saturday through Sunday night. Temperatures maintain in the
high-60s to low-70s in the day time, and drop into the mid-50s
overnight Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
235 PM Update...

The upper-level low finally kicks out of our region Monday, with
lingering showers expected. Conditions dry up Tuesday as there`s
weak ridging that begins to build over the area. Tuesday into
Wednesday is when long-term guidance begins to differ pretty
differently, with each solution having either longer and
stronger ridging, or the next system and troughing moving in.
For now, chances of rain showers come back after Tuesday and for
the rest of the week until there`s a more definitive solution on
timing of any rain showers and/or afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Showers and very isolated embedded thunderstorms are moving
across the area presently, with some brief IFR visibilities
having been reported. Could see some of the lower visbys move
into SYR and AVP in the next hour or two. Threat of stronger
thunderstorms looks to be east of a BGM-AVP line at this time.

All terminals will become VFR by the late afternoon as the
front pushes east of the region, as is already the case at
ELM and ITH. Could see brief BKN MVFR ceilings behind the precip
initially, then lower decks should mix out.

ELM is showing signals for fog overnight and given the expected
rain keeping the ground moist, fog occurring this past night,
partial clearing and calm winds gave enough confidence to
include IFR conditions in the TAF. There are some hints for fog
development at ITH and BGM, but confidence is still too low to
include it in this TAF set.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms look to return
Friday, though mostly after 18Z.

Outlook...

Friday Afternoon and Evening...Showers and thunderstorms with
some brief vis restrictions possible. Ceilings likely staying
VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Occasional showers with brief
restrictions likely.

Tuesday...VFR likely.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH/MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC/MPH