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827
FXUS63 KBIS 260245
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
945 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening from
  far northwestern North Dakota through central North Dakota,
  including the James River Valley. Severe weather is not
  expected, though a brief strong thunderstorm or two is not out
  of the question.

- High chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
  through Thursday night. Isolated to scattered severe storms
  are possible over this time period, especially in western
  North Dakota. 60 mph winds, hail up to the size of golf balls,
  and a few tornadoes are possible.

- Below normal temperatures Friday through Sunday, with highs
  mostly in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 945 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The deck of mid level clouds has penetrated more deeply into
northern North Dakota this evening, with scattered observations
of light rain showers with up to a few hundreths of an inch of
precipitation reported. Some isolated thunder was also detected
near Minot, though none has cropped up since as the instability
over our area appears to be on a downward trend. For this
update, we have increased the coverage of these showers more
broadly to account for the overall radar and observation trends.
Have also made some adjustments to the sky cover for this
update.

UPDATE
Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A mid level cloud deck with weak reflectivities have begun to
push into the northwest over the past few hours, with the
occasional light rainfall observed. For this forecast update,
have made some modest adjustments to the sky and PoP grids to
account for the latest satellite and radar trends. Otherwise the
forecast remains on track, with winds beginning to trend
downward at this time.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For this evening and into the overnight hours, there is a 20
percent chance of showers and thunderstorms across most of the
area, with a 30 percent chance in the south central including
much of the James River Valley. Anything that develops should
move from northwest to southeast. Instability looks rather
limited with generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE available,
although moderate effective shear of 40 to 50 kts is expected as
well. As a result, severe weather seems unlikely. However, a
strong thunderstorm or two is possible that may result in small
hail and gusty winds.

Dry conditions are then on tap for Wednesday before additional
shortwaves move through Wednesday night through Thursday night.
Initially for Wednesday night through Thursday morning, the result
looks to be isolated to scattered sub-severe thunderstorms
mainly in the west and south central. For later Thursday
afternoon through Thursday night, a more favorable severe
weather threat sets up. Though not fully open, high pressure
over Minnesota and the Great Lakes Region will advect Gulf
Stream moisture into the state, especially the western half.
Progged mixed layer dewpoints from this are in the low to mid
50s, which may help MUCAPE values to reach in excess of 2000
J/kg. In addition, plenty of shear to sustain updrafts is also
progged for this event. Potential hazards are wind gusts up to
60 mph, golf ball size hail, and a few tornadoes. As storms
progress eastward, the environment looks less favorable, though
a few severe storms may be possible for central ND as well.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are favored to continue
Friday through Friday night, especially in the northern half of
the state. However, as supported by CSU Machine Learning, these
storms seem unlikely to become severe as of now. Conditions
then look to dry out Saturday through Saturday night before
showers and thunderstorms return early next week with severe
weather chances favored to return.

Temperature-wise, expect near average temperatures north this
afternoon with seasonably warm temperatures south. This
translates to highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Highs for
Wednesday are forecast to be below average and in the 70s for
all but the southwest where the low 80s are possible. Thursday
should be slightly warmer, with most locations remaining in the
70s, although the upper 80s are possible in the southwest. A
cooling trend is then expected Friday through Saturday, with
high confidence that Saturday will see well below average highs
in the mid 60s to around 70. A bit of a warming trend is then
favored to start next week as ridging to the west amplifies and
slides through the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
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Issued at 945 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR ceilings and visibility are mainly expected at all
terminals to begin the 00Z TAF period. Scattered showers are
expected across northwestern and central North Dakota overnight,
along with some potential for an isolated thunderstorm or two
in central North Dakota. With these showers, MVFR ceilings are
anticipated to move over the terminals of KMOT and KJMS by
early Wednesday morning, though reduced ceilings and
visibilities will be possible at any terminal where showers and
thunderstorms do develop, along with gust and erratic winds.
North winds are generally diminish, becoming light this evening
and overnight, then becoming easterly through Wednesday
afternoon.
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&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Adam