Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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472 FXUS63 KBIS 182230 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 530 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered light rain showers this evening in the northwest and south central. - Below average temperatures tonight, with frost likely in the west. Some temperatures below freezing can not be be ruled out in southwest North Dakota. Seasonably cool temperatures continue through Saturday. - Frost Advisory for western and portions of south central North Dakota tonight. - Mostly dry Wednesday, then chances for showers and thunderstorms return late Thursday through Saturday. && .UPDATE...
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Issued at 526 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The forecast for the remainder of this afternoon and evening remains on track. Isolated to scattered showers linger across the local area with a S/WV mid level trough swinging east through the Northern Plains. Still expect clearing in the wave`s wake west to east tonight, along with lowering dewpoint temps falling into the 30s, increasing the probability for frost development. Thus headlines remain valid.
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&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Currently a cold front is moving through the northwestern part of the state, turning winds to the north. A big surface low pressure is sitting over western Minnesota. Low stratus and cumulus can be found across the area with light rain falling in the northwest, and the south central. Aloft the CONUS is split in half with a large trough over the west, and a ridge over the Eastern Seaboard. The trough axis currently sits in central Montana. Once that moves through later this evening the chance of rain will be done, and skies will clear out. A Frost Advisory is in effect tonight in the western part of the state, and portions of the south central. With the clear skies and calm winds behind the cold front, temperatures will likely drop to the mid 30s and possibly to freezing, especially in the lower valleys. This is at least 10 degrees below average. The advisory runs from 07 to 13z. Wednesday will be dry with a surface high pressure centered over the Dakotas and quasi-zonal flow aloft. High temperatures will also remain below average in the lower 70s. Thursday flow aloft starts to turn southwest as the next trough forms over California. Thursday will only be slightly warmer with that southwest flow. A near Colorado Low at the surface will form from this trough Thursday night, moving in Friday morning. Meanwhile a clipper system out of Canada will slide across the north. This will lead to almost two rounds of rain. First across the south and east, then across the west and north through Saturday. The rest of the forecast will be drier and warmer. A quick ridge moves through Sunday with warmer temperatures, back into the upper 70s and mid 80s. Monday after the ridge moves through the south could get near 90 with the north nearing 80 under zonal flow. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 IFR this afternoon and into this evening with light rain showers. Skies will clear overnight and winds will turn more northwesterly. Winds this afternoon could gust to 20kts, at lower confident terminals we left it out for now. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ Wednesday for NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>044. && $$ UPDATE...NH DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Smith