-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
493
FXUS64 KBRO 282325 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
625 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

An upper-level ridge over Central Texas will slowly lift to the
north this weekend, as an inverted mid-level trough moves across the
southern Gulf. This will support an influx of moisture Saturday into
Saturday night. PWATs are expected to approach 2 Saturday night,
with CAPE values above 1000 J/kg. Conditions are expected to be
fairly dry through Saturday, with rain chances increasing Saturday
night.

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the
period, with overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s and high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s on Saturday. Heat index values
are expected to approach 110 again Saturday afternoon, with some
areas briefly rising above 111. Heat Advisories may be needed for
the eastern counties, however confidence is low on the spatial and
temporal coverage of the higher heat index values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

The start of the period gives us the best chance for
precipitation through the long term. An influx of tropical
moisture is expected over the weekend as a tropical wave
propagates westward through the Bay of Campeche. There could be
some gradual strengthening this weekend with this system but
impacts to Deep South Texas will be increased chances of rainfall
and increased risk of rip currents. The National Hurricane Center
has a 30% chance of formation in the next 48 hours.

Sunday will be the best chance of rain across the region from the
aforementioned system with chances ranging from 50% across the
northern Ranchlands to 70% in the mid and lower Valley. Rain
chances will gradually taper off Sunday evening through Monday as
this tropical wave/system moves into Mexico. While the rest of
the forecast period will likely remain dry, can not rule out a
shower or isolated thunderstorm each afternoon along the sea
breeze, though POPs remain unmentionable.

Temperatures will remain near normal with highs generally in the mid
90s through the first part of the period. As we head into mid to
late week, temps will increase slightly into the mid to upper 90s
and a few 100s across the Rio Grande Plains. Heat indices could
also rise to around 110/111 degrees in spots, mainly late in the
week. Currently, it does not appear that time length/area will
reach criteria to issue Heat Advisories.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions with decreasing cloudiness overnight. VFR expected
Saturday with sct to occasionally bkn cloud decks mid-morning and
early afternoon. Gusty southeast winds diminish this evening with
moderate gusty winds resuming Saturday afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Tonight through Saturday night:
Pressure gradients are expected to tighten tonight supporting
stronger winds along the Western Gulf. This will likely require
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines through Saturday
morning. Light to moderate winds are expected through the remainder
of the period. A slight uptick in seas are expected through the
period, with wave heights forecast to reach 4-5 ft by Saturday night.

Sunday through Thursday:
A Tropical Wave with a 30% chance of development moving through
the Bay of Campeche over the weekend will lead to an increased
pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast. MOderate to Fresh
Breezes are anticipated on Sunday with wave heights of 6 to 8 feet
are are expected. Small Craft Advisories will be needed into
Sunday night before conditions improve on Monday. Favorable
conditions are anticipated through the remainder of the period
with MOderate breezes and wave heights of generally 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             82  94  81  92 /  10  10  30  80
HARLINGEN               79  97  77  93 /   0   0  20  70
MCALLEN                 82  98  80  94 /   0   0  10  70
RIO GRANDE CITY         81  97  79  93 /   0   0  10  70
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      84  89  84  87 /  10  10  30  60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     81  92  80  90 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...59-GB