-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
933
FXUS64 KBRO 301757 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1257 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The KBRO upper air sounding from around sunset Saturday evening
indicated 1.89 inches of precipitable water in the atmospheric
column. Model guidance suggests that this moisture will increase
to between 2 and 2.25 inches today as broad low pressure moves
west across the Bay of Campeche. As a result, Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley will experience scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms today, with convection ending for
tonight. Despite the fact that precipitable water values will wane
on Monday, enough moisture will be present to generate isolated
convection at that time, but generally within the counties
bordering the Rio Grande River.

Temperature-wise, the chance for precipitation and associated cloud
cover will yield near normal values. A survey of heat indices reveals
that a HEAT ADVISORY will not be needed for today or tomorrow, so a
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT will be issued to mention the indices.

Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast, courtesy of an
enhanced pressure gradient, will result in a HIGH RISK of rip
currents at the local beaches until around sunrise Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The 500mb ridge centered over the ArkLaTx region Monday night
will provide subsidence across Deep South Texas through much of
the period. Above normal temperatures are expected through the
long term. Highs each day will range from mid to upper 80s at the
beaches to the 90s inland. By midweek, high temperatures will
approach or exceed 100 degrees across much of the Rio Grande
Plains. The hot temperatures combined with humid southeasterly
onshore flow will support heat indices 105 to 110 degrees each
afternoon, especially across the eastern half of the CWA. Heat
index values could briefly reach or exceed 111 degrees for a short
time each afternoon but, not long enough to meet Heat Advisory
criteria. Overnight low temperatures will range from the low to
mid 70s across much of the area to the lower 80s at the beaches.

Hurricane Beryl is forecast to approach the Yucatan Peninsula
towards the end of the work week. Current model guidance suggest
that Beryl could enter the Gulf of Mexico next weekend. All
interests along the Lower Texas Coast should monitor the progress of
this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Some
ongoing convection is expected to continue into the afternoon,
however most of the activity is expected to remain west or south
of the aerodromes.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Today through Monday: Buoy 42020 reported east-southeast winds
around 16 knots gusting to around 19 knots with seas slightly over
6.5 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 1:50 CDT/6:50 UTC. A Small
Craft Advisory has been posted for the Gulf of Mexico waters from
0 to 60 nautical miles offshore until around sunrise Monday due
to broad low pressure over the Bay of Campeche interacting with
high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Marine conditions
will then improve on Monday as the pressure gradient weakens and
the swells subside.

Monday night through Saturday...Favorable conditions are expected
through the period with high pressure in control. Light to moderate
winds and low to moderate will prevail through late week. Current
model guidance suggest that Beryl could enter the Gulf of Mexico
next weekend. All interests along the Lower Texas Coast should
monitor the progress of this system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  80  94  78 /  70  30  30   0
HARLINGEN               93  76  95  75 /  70  20  30   0
MCALLEN                 94  79  96  78 /  70  30  30   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  77  95  76 /  60  40  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  84  88  81 /  60  20  20   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     91  80  92  77 /  60  20  20   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...60-BE