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095
FXUS62 KCAE 251703
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
103 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures are expected to continue through the period.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should occur
each afternoon and evening, with better coverage likely
Thursday as a weak front sets up near the area. Increasing heat
impacts Friday through the weekend. Another weak front will
move into near the area Monday with possible better convective
coverage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES:
-Heat continues to hold on over the area with max heat indices
 over 100. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Orangeburg and
 Bamberg counties for heat indices near 110 this afternoon.

A moisture boundary remains draped across the area with a steep
dew point gradient of 5-10 degrees from Columbia to Orangeburg.
A scattered cu field is seen on the dry side of the moisture
gradient, but some more widespread cu is beginning to develop
across the I-95 corridor. Dew point depressions and mid-level
dry air will prevent any shower-storm activity this afternoon
across much of the Midlands, but in the deeper moisture in the
extreme eastern Midlands and coastal plain, a few pop up showers
and storms are likely. High temps should top our around 100
again with heat indices pushing 110 in the areas on the moist
side of the boundary.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-Hot conditions to continue with max heat indices of 100-105.
-Widely scattered to scattered afternoon/early evening
 thunderstorms, greatest coverage in the southeast Midlands
 Wednesday.
-Highest chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday, some
 possibly severe. Wind damage is the main threat.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...The frontal boundary appears to
lift to the north and will probably become stationary near the
central or northern Midlands. There will be drier air in the
west with the GFS and ECMWF showing lower precipitable water
from north GA into western SC. Moisture maximized in the coastal
Plain and southeast Midlands. Expect 1.5 inches to 1.7 inches
near and southeast of the frontal boundary. Upper heights remain
elevated but the ridge center shifts west as an upper trough
moves east of the Mississippi River. Main short wave trough
appears to be well west of the region, across the Tennessee
Valley into the Gulf coast, so trigger lacking other than the
weak convergence near the front and sea breeze. Moderate
instability possible although some mid level capping in the west
and limited moisture especially above 3km. Low to mid level
lapse rates are quite steep with temperatures rising to near 100
degrees. Temperatures guidance is quite consistent with
continued heat wave despite approaching upper trough. Soundings
suggest strong inverted V especially to the west near the drier
air. Overall shear remains relative weak. Convective coverage
expected to be widely scattered to scattered mainly focused near
the sea breeze front and higher theta-e air across the east.

Thursday and Thursday night...Positively tilted upper trough
moving into the region Thursday with increasing moisture. Deeper
shear remains to the north across the Mid Atlantic. But short
wave triggers expected in the afternoon. Another surface
boundary will move into the area to provide convergence.
Instability appears weak to moderate but somewhat uncertain.
Capping should be weaker. Steep low to mid level lapse rates
and inverted V sounding, possible stronger lift support higher
threat for pulse severe storms. Temperatures might be slightly
cooler but still hot.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-Increasing heat impacts expected Friday through the weekend
 with heat index values 105 to 110.
-Scattered afternoon thunderstorms each day.

Ensembles are in good agreement showing a strengthening upper ridge
aloft Friday through the weekend. Diurnally driven scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible each day. With subsidence through
Saturday, continued to go below the NBM pops. Temperatures will
rise through the weekend beneath the building ridge, and
confidence high for significant heat impacts. Another front will
move into the area by late in the weekend/early next week and
perhaps higher chance of showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Dry air continues to keep only a thin scattered cu field for
AGS, DNL, CUB, and CAE. Deeper moisture at OGB is yielding some
widespread cu this afternoon. Winds will remain out of the east
through the afternoon and overnight, with some gusts to around
10-12 mph. An isolated shower-storm is possible near OGB later
this evening but confidence is too low for a TAF mention. Some
fog-stratus is possible at OGB Wednesday morning, but again too
low confidence for TAF mention yet.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chances start to increase for precip
and restrictions on Thursday and Friday.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for SCZ041-135>137.
GA...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...