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580
FXUS61 KCAR 180502
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
102 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area into Thursday. A cold
front from eastern Canada will cross the region Thursday
afternoon. Cooler high pressure will build over the region into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1 am update...
Some clouds occurring ahead of vort max but will maintain moclr
acrs the area. Isolated showers are getting close to the St.
John Valley but other than a stray sprinkle have not added pops
in due to dry airmass. May be able to see patchy river valley
fog develop late tonight. Have adjusted temps to lower them just
a touch in the valleys where winds are decoupled but no other
chgs needed.

Previous discussion...
High pressure remains over the area tonight through Wednesday,
with warm air advection and mostly clear skies during the
daytime hours lifting temperatures into the low to mid 80s
across the forecast area. For tonight, mostly clear skies and
subsiding winds will allow for surface decoupling, but with
increased dewpoints, lows will likely only fall into the mid
50s. On Wednesday, cloud cover will begin to increase from south
to north due to an approaching low pressure system from the
south. However, with continued SW warm air advection and breaks
in the incoming cloud cover, temperatures will likely approach
the low to mid 80s once more. Patchy river valley fog is
possible again tonight due to increased low level moisture and
surface decoupling, and may briefly limit visibility right
around sunrise prior to the fog dissipating.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure maintains its hold over the forecast area through
Thursday night. On Thursday night, an inverted trough will
bring a back door cold front from Eastern New Brunswick through
the forecast area. This back door cold front does not look
particularly strong. It brings the first chance of showers in
quite a while. However, models are indicating this is likely to
be a dry frontal passage, with only a few ensemble solutions
indicating any precipitation at all, and only for far
northeastern Aroostook county. Went with NBM solution which
brings no precip through, but there does remain a low chance of
a light shower. Patchy fog is possible both Wednesday night and
Thursday night, mainly in river valleys and low lying areas

As for temperatures, anomalously warm temperatures will
continue through Thursday, with a noticeable drop in daytime
highs on Friday after the cold front moves through. Colder air
will not reach Coastal Downeast until later in the day, so highs
for the coast on Friday will be similar to Thursday, in the low
70s. This will mark the beginning of a more seasonable trend in
the temperatures for the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridging will return and become the dominating feature again
over the weekend, although with cooler temperatures aloft, it
will feel more seasonable than during the work week. With
clearing skies, nighttime lows are expected to drop into the mid
40s to upper 30s. Patchy frost is not be out of the question,
particularly in valleys across the North Woods. Dry weather is
expected to continue through Tuesday, potentially raising
concern for a flash drought even though the growing season is
coming to an end.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Other than a brief IFR vsby restriction at PQI and
BHB in patchy fog late tonight expect terminals will be VFR.

SHORT TERM:

Wednesday night....VFR. Slight chance of fog mainly at PQI, BHB.
Light W to SW winds becoming N to NE.

Thursday night through Sunday...VFR. Slight chance of fog at BHB
Thursday night. Light NE winds.
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&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas should remain well below small craft
advisory levels tonight through Wednesday. Seas will remain 1 to
3 ft or less through this time, with a few gusts approaching 20
kts early this evening on the coastal waters before subsiding
overnight through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will mostly remain below SCA
criteria, although there is a chance for a few gusts to 25 kts
in the outer waters early Friday morning and again Friday night.
Seas will remain 2 to 4 feet through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
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Near record high temperatures are possible Wednesday. Although
some of the records look to be well out of reach there are a few
records that could potentially be tied or broken such as Houlton.
Here are the record highs and forecast highs Wednesday.

9/18:
Caribou: 86F, 1942 (forecast high 85F)
Bangor: 87F, 1992 (forecast high 84F)
Millinocket: 87F, 1991 (forecast high 85F)
Houlton: 82F, 2015 (forecast high 85F)
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Buster
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...AStrauser/Buster/LF
Marine...AStrauser/Buster/LF
Climate...CB/Buster