-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
163
FXUS61 KCAR 171710
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
110 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm high pressure will remain over the area into Thursday. A cold
front from Eastern Canada will cross the region Thursday afternoon.
Cooler high pressure will build over the region into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
110 PM Update: Clear skies continue across the forecast area
with a high pressure remaining in place. Cirrus and fair weather
cu have been slow to work into the area from the west, so high
temperature forecast was raised slightly with this update.

Prev discussion blo...
1025mb sfc high over srn New England has brought light sw winds to
the CWA early this morning. Thin cirrus continues to stream north
from the moisture-laden system over upstate South Carolina. Weak H7
shortwave over Quebec is bringing showers and ocnl lightning twd the
ern half of the province. CWA remains smack in the middle of these
two systems with clear skies acrs the entire area. Valley fog
developing over wrn Maine but not seeing any evidence in our area as
of 06z.

For today, CWA will start out sunny but expect that thin cirrus will
begin to move into swrn portions of the region early-mid afternoon
but not enuf to inhibit diurnal htg. High level smoke likely to be
present in the morning and into the afternoon but should become less
noticeable as the evening hours approach.

May see subtle s/wv approach the St. John Valley mid-afternoon but
given the dry airmass have not included any showers in the forecast
for the area. Temps will be very similar to yesterday with middle
80s over inland areas, around 80F over the northwest and lwr 60s to
mid 70s along the coast and outer islands.

For tonight high pressure will have built south of Nova Scotia with
light and variable winds expected. Mins will be similar to this
morning with another round of river valley fog expected late
tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm ridge of high pressure, both surface and aloft, will remain
anchored over our region on Wednesday. This will bring another
mostly sunny and very warm day with inland highs in the low to mid
80s across the region. Some high clouds may stray into southern
areas from a weak weather system off the Mid Atlantic coast.

Wednesday night will be another very warm night with the ridge
remaining over the area. The calm air may allow patchy fog to form
in some river valleys. Otherwise, the sky will range from partly
cloudy over the north to mostly cloudy across the south.

Low pressure off the Southern New England coast will remain to our
south on Thursday blocked by the upper ridge over the region. A bit
of mid and upper level moisture may stray north to bring a partly
cloudy sky, to perhaps mostly cloudy closer to the coast. Otherwise,
Thursday will again be dry with highs in the upper 70s to near 80.
Meanwhile, a new area of high pressure and ridging will be building
over Northeastern Canada. High pressure descending from Labrador
will push a cold front into the area Thursday afternoon. The front
has very little moisture with it so there will only be a slight
chance for showers, mainly across the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure building down from Northern Quebec and Labrador
will begin to push in slightly cooler air Thursday night.
Otherwise, the north will be partly cloudy and southern areas
mostly cloudy. We will have to keep watch of the system off the
coast. However, it currently looks like blocking high pressure
over the northeast will keep that system offshore, sliding east
to the south of Nova Scotia.

Friday will turn out partly sunny and significantly cooler as high
pressure building down from the north begins to seep cooler air
south into the area. Highs from the upper 60s north to near 70 over
the interior south will be near normal for the third week in
September. This will be followed by a mostly clear and chilly night
Friday night with lows in the 40s across the area.

Saturday will be even cooler as high pressure near Northern Labrador
continues pressing down from the north. Highs may only be in the mid
60s over the region. Dry conditions will persist. Friday night will
be clear with lows near 40 in the cooler northern valleys to the mid
40s over interior Downeast by early Sunday morning. Some of the
coldest valleys in the northwest could dip into the upper 30s
possibly resulting in patchy frost.

Dry and cool weather will persist through Sunday and into early next
week as the new high ridges over the area. Some gradual moderation
is likely going into the new week as the cold advection subsides and
upper ridging remains over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: VFR today and tonight. WSW winds may gust 15 to 20
kts briefly at Aroostook terminals through this afternoon.
Cannot rule out patchy fog once again in river valleys late
tonight. Winds light and variable tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday... VFR. Light SW wind.

Wednesday night... VFR. Light SW wind becoming calm.

Thursday... VFR. Light N wind over the north and light E wind over
the south.

Thursday night into Saturday...VFR. Light NE wind.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas and winds remain well below small craft levels.
Seas will range from 1 to 3 feet through tonight. SW winds gust
to around 15kts this afternoon before subsiding late tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Northeast winds may approach 25 kt over the offshore waters
Friday into early Saturday. Otherwise, wind and seas will remain
below SCA this week. Humid air over the waters may result in
some fog Wednesday and Thursday. Vsby should be good Friday into
the weekend as cooler drier air moves over the waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Near record high temperatures are possible today and Wednesday.
Although some of the records look to be well out of reach there
are a few records that could potentially be tied or broken.
Here are the record highs and forecast highs for today and
Wednesday September 17th and 18th.

9/17:
Caribou: 88F, 2018 (forecast high 85F)
Bangor: 88F, 1991 (forecast high 86F)
Millinocket: 90F, 1939 (forecast high 86F)
Houlton: 85F, 2018 (forecast high 85F)

9/18:
Caribou: 86F, 1942 (forecast high 84F)
Bangor: 87F, 1992 (forecast high 84F)
Millinocket: 87F, 1991 (forecast high 84F)
Houlton: 82F, 2015 (forecast high 84F)
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Buster
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...AStrauser/Buster/Bloomer
Marine...AStrauser/Buster/Bloomer
Climate...CB/AStrauser