-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
071
FXUS61 KCAR 170054
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
854 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region through the early
week. A backdoor cold front will drift southwest over Maine on
Thursday. Another area of high pressure works into the area
through the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
853PM Update...Temps have decreased faster than previously
forecast, so adjusted to show the change. Otherwise, the rest of
the forecast looks good.

Previous Discussion...
The 590dam 500mb high is drifting SE over the Gulf of Maine and
weakening to 588dam with the surface high drifting SE of Browns
Bank. Expect a mainly clear night with just haze from the
Western US/Canada wildfire activity. Temperatures will fall back
into the mid to upper 50s as winds relax. Patchy fog will likely
develop in the river valleys tonight. Tomorrow the ridging
begins to get squashed and the surface 1024mb high drifts south
of Browns Bank in the NW Atlantic. A weak increase of moisture
aloft will allow for some clouds to develop and turning some
skies mostly sunny but mainly sunny skies expected. Tomorrow the
W-SW winds will be lighter with mainly less than 10mph but a few
occasional gusts to 15mph possible. 850mb temps will be around
+20 to +21C so expecting highs in the low to mid 80s for most
areas. Upper 70s to low 80s in the North Woods and low to mid
70s at the shoreline. Expecting slightly lower dew points in
spots tomorrow resulting in afternoon minimum RHs in the 45-50%
range with some locations perhaps as low as 40%. This combined
with long term rainfall deficits do cause pause to monitor for
fire weather conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the area Tuesday night
through Wednesday, keeping skies mostly clear through Tuesday
night and allowing for surface decoupling that will cause
temperatures to fall into the mid 50s. The mild lingering
temperatures remain from southwest warm air advection with the
current pattern. On Wednesday, mostly clear skies will allow for
temperatures to lift back into the 80s. A low pressure system
will be approaching from the south through the middle of the
week, and in advance of this low, cloud cover will begin to
increase from south to north. As cloud cover begins to increase
along the coast, temperatures will begin to level off, so
highest temperatures will lift into the lower 80s at the
warmest.

The ridge of high pressure will act to keep the low pressure
from the south away from the forecast area. Instead, a
background front will drape into the area from the northeast
beginning during the day on Thursday. All the moisture available
for rain development will be provided from the Canadian
Maritimes, so showers will be wildly scattered at best. However,
the change in synoptic setup will result in more overcast skies
through the middle of the week. Cooler air behind the FROPA as
well as more overcast skies will keep temperatures a few degrees
cooler on Thursday as compared to Wednesday, with highs in the
upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure will return to the area from the north
through the end of the week, and remain into early next week.
More seasonable temperatures may be on the way with this air
mass, though dry conditions will persist through this time. With
mostly clear skies and lighter winds under the subsidence
pattern, surface decoupling will allow for temperatures to fall
into the lower 40s to potentially into the 30s, which may allow
for a chance for frost this weekend. The greatest chance for any
frost development will likely be the typical cooler valleys
across the north, especially into the North Woods.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through tomorrow. BCFG possible at PQI and HUL
may briefly reduce sfc vsby but most terms are visible. Tonight,
W-SW winds around 5kt. Tomorrow winds will be W-SW 5-15kt
tomorrow.

SHORT TERM:
Tues night: VFR with patchy valley fog late Tuesday night.
Light W winds Tuesday night.

Wed - Wed night: VFR. Light W winds.

Thurs - Thurs night: Mainly VFR across all terminals. Brief MVFR
possible in any rain showers that do form, though the chance of
intense enough rain showers for limited cigs or vis is low (less
than 10 percent). Northern terminals NW winds 5 to 10 kts.
Southern terminals E around 5 kts. All terminals becoming NE
around 5 kts late Thurs night.

Fri - Sat: VFR across all terminals. NE winds 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA through Tuesday.
Seas 1-2ft into tomorrow. Sea surface water temperatures are
generally 54-58F from the Downeast coast out 25nm and east to
the Hague Line with coldest water temperatures in Passamaquoddy
Bay and near the Bay of Fundy.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft
advisory criteria through Thursday night, with seas 2-3 feet or
less and light winds. Wind gusts will begin to approach 20 kts
through the end of the week, while seas approach 5 ft over the
coastal waters into the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record high temperatures possible through the first half of
this week. Although some of the records look to be well out of
reach there are a few records that could potentially be tied or
broken. Here are the record highs and forecast highs for today
through Wednesday September 16th-18th.

9/16:
Caribou: 88F, 1939 (forecast high 84F)
Bangor: 97F, 1939 (forecast high 84F)
Millinocket: 93F, 1939 (forecast high 84F)
Houlton: 82F, 2017 (forecast high 83F)

9/17:
Caribou: 88F, 2018 (forecast high 85F)
Bangor: 88F, 1991 (forecast high 85F)
Millinocket: 90F, 1939 (forecast high 85F)
Houlton: 85F, 2018 (forecast high 85F)

9/18:
Caribou: 86F, 1942 (forecast high 83F)
Bangor: 87F, 1992 (forecast high 83F)
Millinocket: 87F, 1991 (forecast high 84F)
Houlton: 82F, 2015 (forecast high 84F)

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...LaFlash/Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...LaFlash/Sinko/AStrauser
Climate...