581
FXUS61 KCAR 160201
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1001 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region through the early
week. A backdoor cold front will drift southwest over Maine on
Thursday. Another area of high pressure works into the area
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10pm Update...
Only very minor change to lower temperatures in a few spots
that are already near forecast lows, specifically southern
Washington County and portions of the North Woods. Some cirrus
spilling into Northern Maine from the north. Cirrus isn`t too
thick and it shouldn`t impact temperatures too much. Airmass is
much warmer in general, and lows tonight will be a good amount
warmer than last night. There is a fair amount of smoke in the
atmosphere, but it is mostly well above the surface and not
impacting air quality much.

Previous Discussion...
The center of a 590dam high at 500mb will drift over Southern
New England tonight as a 1028mb surface high drifts over Georges
Bank in the Gulf of Maine. Expecting winds to go calm tonight,
nearly clear skies again except some high clouds across the
north and dry conditions means decoupling expected. Steep
inversion will allow for river valley fog once again, perhaps
some low stratus along the shoreline. Temperatures fall back
into the low to mid 50s. Warmer 850mb temps of +19C to +20C
spill over the north side of this high. Modeled soundings are
showing 12z 850mb temps at CAR around +18C. The daily record for
soundings tomorrow is 15.4C so likely beating that record. High
pressure barely moves tomorrow with mainly sunny skies expected
with perhaps some occasional cirrus. Modeled soundings showing
decent mixing tomorrow up to 800mb with 15-20kt winds so
expecting those W-SW winds tomorrow at times gusty. 850mb temps
warming into the +19C to +21C range will make for a very warm
September day. High temperatures top out in the low to mid 80s
across much of the area which may approach a few daily records.
The core of the warmest temps will be St. John Valley to Baxter
to Bangor including Caribou, Houlton and the Route 9 corridor to
Washington County. Upper 70s to low 80s along the Downeast
coast with slight wind off the water and around 80F in the North
Woods. This is anywhere from 10-15 degrees above normal for
September 16th. One thing to note, minimum RHs will drop into
the 45-50% range tomorrow afternoon. Persistent long term dry
conditions combined with warm temperatures, breezy winds and
relatively lower RHs values will need to watch for maybe some
fire wx concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure remains positioned over northern New
England through the middle of the week. Heading into the day on
Tuesday, an occluded front will begin to sag southwards towards
the St. John Valley. With a 1024 mb high sitting across the Gulf
of Maine, however, the weakening front will not be able to
overcome this blocking pattern, and should wash out north of the
forecast area through the middle of the week. The proximity of
this feature could lead to an increase in cloud cover though. At
the same time, a cut-off low will approach from along the Mid-
Atlantic coast, but once again the ridge of high pressure is
likely to be too strong for the low to push into our forecast
area. Instead, an increase in cloud cover is likely across the
Downeast region on Wednesday with this low approach.

With return flow wrapping around the backside of the high
pressure through the middle of the week, warm temperatures will
remain in the area, with highs in the low to mid 80s both
Tuesday and Wednesday. At night, surface decoupling and mostly
clear skies will allow for temperatures to drop into the mid to
upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A backdoor front may retreat through the area from the
northeast late Thursday through the day on Friday. This front is
fueled by Canadian Maritime moisture, which could bring
isolated to scattered rain showers into the forecast area as the
boundary passes through. The change in airmass will allow for
temperatures to fall back into a more seasonal range by this
weekend. Behind the backdoor front, high pressure returns to the
area, with dry conditions persisting through the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. Between 09-12z BCFG may cause FEW001 cigs. Added
LLWS to FVE, CAR, and PQI for winds to 25 kt around 1,000 ft
above ground from about 7-13z. Winds at the surface, however,
will only be S/SW 5 kts or less tonight thanks to a strong
inversion. Tomorrow VFR. W-SW winds 5-15kt a few afternoon gusts
up to 20kt.

SHORT TERM:
Mon night - Tues night...VFR. Patchy valley fog each morning.
SW winds 5 to 10 kts gusting to 20 kts Tues afternoon, shifting
W Tues night.

Wed - Wed night...VFR. Winds light and variable.

Thurs - Fri...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR showers for northern
terminals. NE winds around 5 kts each afternoon, becoming light
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below SCA conditions through tomorrow
evening. SW winds expected and may gust up to 20kt tomorrow over
the outer Coastal Waters. Seas 1-2ft tonight and 2-3ft tomorrow.
Sea surface water temperatures are generally 54-58F from the
Downeast coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line with coldest
water temperatures in Passamaquoddy Bay and near the Bay of
Fundy.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft levels
through the middle of the week. Seas from 1-3 feet through
Thursday before increasing Friday into Saturday to around 5
feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record high temperatures possible this week. Although some
of the records look to be well out of reach there are a few
records that could potentially be tied or broken. Here are the
record highs and forecast highs for Monday through Wednesday
September 16th-18th.

9/16:
Caribou: 88F, 1939 (forecast high 84F)
Bangor: 97F, 1939 (forecast high 84F)
Millinocket: 93F, 1939 (forecast high 84F)
Houlton: 82F, 2017 (forecast high 84F)

9/17:
Caribou: 88F, 2018 (forecast high 85F)
Bangor: 88F, 1991 (forecast high 85F)
Millinocket: 90F, 1939 (forecast high 85F)
Houlton: 85F, 2018 (forecast high 84F)

9/18:
Caribou: 86F, 1942 (forecast high 81F)
Bangor: 87F, 1992 (forecast high 82F)
Millinocket: 87F, 1991 (forecast high 82F)
Houlton: 82F, 2015 (forecast high 82F)

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Foisy/Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Foisy/Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...Foisy/Sinko/AStrauser
Climate...CB/NC/AStrauser