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490
FXUS63 KDDC 021015
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
515 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms appear possible
  across portions of southwest KS Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible Wednesday
  evening as an MCS rolls out of eastern CO.

- A cold frontal passage on Thursday will bring dry, pleasant
  weather for Independence Day festivities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Latest water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
reveals a longwave trough is spread out from the Pacific
Northwest through the Intermountain West/Rocky Mountains and
into the northern and central plains. At the surface, a ~999-mb
low pressure system is centered over south-central Canada, with
an attendant cold front extending southward into the central
plains. As the upper level trough slides east during the day
Tuesday, the surface cold front will slowly drift southward,
entering our far northwest zones shortly after sunrise, and
continuing through our area through the morning and afternoon.
Little cold air will exist behind this front, and afternoon
temperatures will still reach the low 90s northwest to the low
100s southeast.

Focus then shifts to convective activity Tuesday afternoon into
the evening hours, of which there appears to be two main areas
of concern. First, convection is expected to develop along and
ahead of the southward advancing cold front during the 20-22Z
time frame. There is virtually no agreement amongst guidance
members on where the front will be by this time, so confidence
is low, but the best guess would be near a Larned to Liberal
line. The CAPE/shear parameter space ahead of the front is not
overly impressive, but sufficient for strong to marginally
severe thunderstorms, posing primarily a large hail and damaging
wind gust threat. The second area of concern is within a post-
frontal upslope flow regime across our northwest/west zones.
Thunderstorms are expected to initiate over the higher terrain
in eastern CO, moving southeast with time and entering our area
during the 23-01Z time frame. Given closer proximity to the
upper trough, slightly cooler mid-level temperatures will result
in enough instability to support a large hail and damaging wind
gust threat.

Daytime Wednesday, short range guidance agrees broad longwave
troughing will become established over roughly the northern
half of the CONUS. At the surface, the cold front that moved
through southwest KS on Tuesday will stall and begin to wash out
just south of our area. The combination of southeasterly
upslope flow and 850-mb warm advection amidst a moist
environment will foster scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms much of the day Wednesday, favoring the southeast
half of our CWA. HREF probability of QPF > 0.1" is in the 30-50%
range south and east of Dodge City, but decreases rapidly to
0-10% with northwest extent. The associated abundant cloud cover
will limit afternoon temperatures to below normal (low 90s),
with highs only in the low to mid 80s. Later Wednesday
afternoon, a southeast-digging upper level shortwave trough
over the northern Rockies will aid in the development of
thunderstorms in southeast CO that will move into western KS
during the late afternoon/early evening hours. 35-45 kts of
deep-layer shear and ample instability will support a severe
threat with this activity, with large hail and damaging wind
gusts the primary threats.

On Independence Day, medium range ensembles agree the
aforementioned upper level shortwave trough will eject into the
central/northern plains, sending another cold front southward
through our area. This frontal passage appears to be mostly dry
as LREF probability of QPF > 0.1" is below 15% for all areas,
but it will bring a reinforcing shot of cool air which should
make for a relatively pleasant day for outdoor celebrations as
afternoon highs will be generally below normal in the mid to
upper 80s.

Friday through early next week, medium range ensembles agree the
upper level longwave trough will slowly be forced eastward as
strong ridging builds into the western CONUS. This pattern
favors a dry, warming trend for southwest KS as temperatures
rise from the 80s on Friday into the low/mid 90s on Sunday, and
LREF probability of QPF > 0.1" stays below 20%.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 515 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current
south-southwesterly winds aoa 12 kts will continue to veer to
westerly through the morning and early afternoon as a cold front
approaches, then northerly once the front passes through by
mid-afternoon. Additionally, thunderstorm activity is expected
across our area during the late afternoon/early evening hours,
however low confidence in any direct terminal impact precluded
mentioning TS in the TAFs.
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&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ066-080-081-088>090.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Springer