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FXUS62 KFFC 251449
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1049 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024



...Morning Update...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1047 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

No significant updates. Conditions remain clear. Current RH values
are slightly lower than forecast. A fire danger statement has been
issued for most of central GA due to the low RH values and
continued dry conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

At a glance:

    - Unseasonable heat continues

    - Clear and mostly dry through Wednesday

For today and the better part of the day Wednesday, north and
central Georgia will be situated under a relative lull in our
presiding flow pattern, with exiting troughing resulting in weakly
northwesterly flow at the mid-levels. Frontal progression has
stalled out along/just south of the CWA border in south central
Georgia, and with even drier air having since moved in across the
area, expect any chances for afternoon thunderstorms today to be
focused in our far southeastern tier -- in closest proximity to
residual frontal forcing. Unhampered warming under sunny skies will
allow temperatures to rebound into the upper-90s areawide (apart
from northeast Georgia, relegated to the mid-80s to near 90), with
the lower triple digits possible once again for areas along and
south of a line extending from Columbus to Macon. What continues to
be our saving grace from truly oppressive heat will be strong mixing
and climatologically-low afternoon dewpoints (in the upper-50s to
lower-60s; between the 10th and 25th percentile per SPC`s Sounding
Climatology). As a result, peak afternoon heat index values will be
within a degree or two of actual temperatures, and perhaps even
slightly "cooler" than actual highs this afternoon. Lows will fall
into the upper-60s to lower-70s.

Beginning midday Wednesday, a shortwave rounding the base of a
broader mid-level trough lifting across the Great Lakes will
approach from the northwest. Moisture will begin to gradually
rebound ahead of it, resulting in pockets of (very) slightly higher
humidity through the afternoon, and increased -- but still low-end
(15-25%) -- chances for isolated thunderstorms. With highs once
again forecast to surge into the upper-90s to lower-100s, will need
to keep a close eye on our heat index values across our far
southeastern tier, as they may approach or exceed Heat Advisory
criteria.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

As the extended period begins on Wednesday night, a longwave trough
will be extending from the eastern Great Lakes into the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be advancing into north Georgia ahead of this trough and an
associated frontal boundary. Precip chances will spread
southeastward overnight and into Thursday as the weakening frontal
boundary sinks southward through the forecast area. Rain chances
will be highest in the afternoon, when temperatures ranging from the
low 90s in west Georgia to the upper 90s in east-central Georgia and
in the upper 60s to low 70s will combine for strong instability.
This instability will lend itself for diurnal enhancement of showers
and thunderstorms, and thus PoPs are forecast to range from 40-60%
in the afternoon. The frontal boundary is anticipated to stall and
wash out by the afternoon, so there will be little in the way of
shear for the afternoon storms to work with. While the threat for
organized severe weather will be low, a few storms may nonetheless
become strong and capable of producing frequent lightning, locally
heavy rain, and gusty winds.

Southerly low-level flow will likely return to the area Friday into
Saturday, which will promote increasing dewpoints, hot temperatures,
and diurnally-driven afternoon thunderstorms through the weekend.
It will be important to keep an eye on temperatures through the
later parts of the week into the weekend. Even with trending high
temperatures down slightly to account for convective development,
highs are still forecast to range from between 4-8 degrees above
average for late June. Highs are mainly forecast to be in the mid to
upper 90s from Friday through the end of the period, and heat
indices are forecast to creep up into the triple digits in many
locations, particularly in the southern half of the forecast
area. Of particular interest will be some locations in central
Georgia, which could see heat index values exceeding 105 this
weekend, in which case Fire Danger Statements would be warranted.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR and primarily SKC conditions to continue. FEW cigs at 25kft
will trickle back in after 21-22Z. Winds initially hovering
around due N will shift slightly, becoming NE/ENE-ly at 7kts or
less through this afternoon. Pds of VRB winds are psbl when
speeds drop below 4kts. Expect a shift to the SW mid-morning
Wednesday, by 14-15Z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  98  74  95 /   0  20  20  40
Atlanta         74  99  76  94 /   0  20  20  40
Blairsville     67  91  67  88 /   0  30  30  60
Cartersville    70  99  71  94 /   0  20  30  50
Columbus        73 101  75  94 /   0  20  20  50
Gainesville     71  96  74  93 /   0  20  20  50
Macon           71 101  74  96 /   0  20  10  50
Rome            69  99  74  94 /   0  20  30  50
Peachtree City  71  99  72  95 /   0  20  20  40
Vidalia         74 100  76  98 /  10  40  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...96