-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
195
FXUS64 KHGX 010422
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1122 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

With surface high pressure remaining nearly overhead and a stout
midlevel ridge remaining the dominant synoptic feature over the
southern CONUS, the main weather concern in the immediate term
continues to be the prospect of excessive heat. Heat index values
have approached 108-110 at many locations this afternoon, though the
risk of heat stress has also been aggravated by clearing skies and
very light winds (both of which are not accounted for in the heat
index formula). A few airmass/diurnal heating-driven storms have
popped up just west of the I-45 corridor, but have (and will
continue to) produced inconsequential rainfall totals thus far.

Overnight lows will remain elevated, sitting in the upper 70s inland
and the lower 80s near the immediate coast. With the surface high
and upper ridge remaining in place tomorrow, we should see another
day with highs climbing into the mid/upper 90s. While afternoon dew
points may perhaps mix out a bit more in the afternoon, this will be
compensated for by a wholesale increase in MaxT values by a few
degrees. As such, we have decided to extend the Heat Advisory over
the overnight period and through tomorrow afternoon. Heat safety
actions will continue to remain critical -- heat stress can become
cumulative during multi-day periods of excessive heat. Be sure to
know the signs of heat exhaustion and take preventative actions like
remaining well-hydrated.

Rainfall chances, while non-zero, will remain fairly low through
tomorrow. Showers/storms associated with a weak boundary will
generally remain to our east. A few afternoon thunderstorms driven
by daytime heating/the sea breeze are possible, but overall rainfall
amounts should prove to be quite low.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Some lighter concentrations of Saharan dust will linger into
Tuesday, which should provide a rather vivid sunrise. This`ll be the
part of the day where we`ll be thankful for the sun for providing us
with a pretty show...because by the afternoon we`re going to be
wishing that it goes away as temperatures rise to near or at the
100F mark. The upper level ridge remains in place through midweek
allowing for the hot temperatures to persist. Persistent onshore
flow remains as well allowing for humidity to remain rather
elevated, so Heat Advisories are likely to extend into next week.
With high temperatures near or at 100F and the elevated humidity on
Tuesday, it appears that we`ll at least flirt with Excessive Heat
Warning criteria in some areas (heat indices at or above 113F).
High temperatures throughout the week will top out in the mid to
upper 90s with some spots reaching 100F at times. During the
overnight hours, we`ll only drop into the upper 70s/low 80s so not
much relief from the heat. So, keep that in mind as the 4th of July
looks to be a hot one...but then again it usually always is. Those
with outdoor plans should continue to practice heat safety.

There will still be daily chances for showers/storms, but they`ll
remain on the slim side (~20-30%). After midweek, the main ridge
axis shifts to the east as an upper level low drifts through the
Northern Plains and towards the Upper Midwest. The timing of this
and how far east the ridge axis shifts may be one of the factors
that affects the track of Beryl. We`re not anticipating any impacts
for Southeast Texas at this time. Check out the "Tropical" section
down below for more details on Beryl. Lastly, it appears that
another Saharan dust plume will move into Southeast Texas towards
the end of the work week.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Radar has finally cleared out but we are seeing some lower (general-
ly MVFR) ceilings form over parts of the region tonight. These lower
CIGs will be spotty with most locations likely staying VFR overnight.
Light and variable winds (around 5kts) are expected overnight with a
brief NW/ N flow possible by tomorrow morning/early afternoon. Areas
of haze are also possible through tomorrow. Otherwise...rain chances
are progged to be slightly lower tomorrow than the last few of days,
but did keep an extra line in (around 19-21Z) in case something does
form. 41
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Tropical Depression Three has developed down in the Bay of Campeche
and will continue to send longer period swells towards the Upper
Texas coastal waters throughout the day. Expect seas around 5-6 feet
in the offshore Gulf waters through Sunday night before subsiding
going into Monday morning. As a result, caution flags remain for the
20-60nm south of Matagorda Bay through tonight as a result. Rather
benign marine conditions will prevail throughout most of the week
with light to occasionally moderate onshore flow. Mariners should
monitor the forecast towards end of the week with the potential for
another tropical system (Beryl) to move into the Bay of Campeche.

Batiste

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Hurricane Beryl strengthened to category 4 earlier this morning
which makes it the earliest calendar year category 4 hurricane on
record in the Atlantic basin. Beryl is still to the east of the
Windward Islands where it`ll push through as a major hurricane some
time on Monday. It`ll then move across the Caribbean Sea throughout
the week. Model uncertainty remains towards the end of the forecast
period but there are still quite a few models placing Beryl near the
Bay of Campeche by the weekend, but there are numerous factors at
play that will determine its final track/intensity. This will
definitely be something worth monitoring as the week progresses
though. Please DO NOT place too much stock into one single
deterministic model run as there is still plenty of time for things
to change. At this time, we are not expecting any impacts in
Southeast Texas.

In the more immediate term, we have newly formed Tropical
Depression Three down in the Bay of Campeche. While this system
will move into eastern Mexico late tonight, we`re already
beginning to see longer period swells lead to elevated wave
heights in the offshore Gulf waters. That and an increased risk of
rip currents will be the extent of the impacts we see from this
system whether or not it becomes a tropical storm (Chris).

Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  99  77 100 /  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  79  99  79  99 /   0  20   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  81  92  82  92 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335-338-438-439.

GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Batiste