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362
FXUS63 KICT 221126
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
626 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong/marginally severe storms possible this evening
  for locations generally east of I-135.

- Excessive heat possible for some areas on Monday and most of
  the area on Tuesday.

- Shower/storm chances with frontal passage by Tuesday night
  bringing brief heat relief for mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Plenty of mid-level clouds with isolated/widely scattered
sprinkles early this morning within the residual high
precipitable water airmass. A hot afternoon is on tap ahead of a
modest cold front which will drop southward across central
Kansas by mid-afternoon. Diurnal heating is expected to result
MLcape values around 2000 j/kg in the presence of modest bulk
shear in vicinity of the frontal boundary. Convergence should be
sufficient to overcome weak capping for isolated to widely
scattered convection as the front sinks southward across the
Flint Hills into southern Kansas during the evening. A few
strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, mainly east
of the I-135 corridor with a risk for down-burst winds/hail.
Heat indices will generally climb into the 100 to 104 range
which remain below Heat Advisory criteria.

The frontal passage will only bring subtly lower temperatures in
some areas for Sunday with highs still climbing into the 90s.
The most intense heat is still expected for Monday and Tuesday
with highs around 100 degrees (highest west of the turnpike)
with heat indices around 105 on Monday afternoon and from 105 to
110 on Tuesday (highest along/east of I-135). Heat Advisory or
Excessive Heat Warnings will be needed for these early week
periods with future forecast issuances. Perhaps some brief heat
relief may come by late Tuesday into Wednesday with a weak
frontal passage, though temperatures should still average above
climo through the middle and end of next week.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions expected through this afternoon, then a chance of
showers and storms possible late this afternoon through late
tonight.

A cold front will sag into central and eastern Kansas, and a
gradual wind shift from southerly to westerly to northerly will
occur throughout the day for KRSL, KGBD, and KSLN. Wind gusts
across the area will generally range from 20 to 30 knots.

Around 22Z, this aforementioned frontal boundary will sag into
central and eastern Kansas, and widely scattered thunderstorm
are expected to initiate along this boundary. Thunderstorms
should stay along and east of a KSLN-to-KICT line from 22Z
through 06Z. KCNU and surrounding areas will see the best chance
for storms in this timeframe. The main concern with stronger
storms will be up to dime sized hail and wind gusts between 40
and 50 knots.

After 06Z, winds will decrease to around 10 knots, and will
likely stay out of the north or west through the remainder of
the TAF period. Rain chances will gradually come to an end as
activity moves eastward into Missouri.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...JC