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676
FXUS62 KILM 281951
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
351 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Bermuda high pressure will dominate again as a lingering front
retreats northward with increasing heat through the weekend.
Another cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms from late Sunday into Monday. Relatively cooler
and drier conditions will arrive behind the front on Tuesday
with a warming and moistening trend through the midweek period.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Increased subsidence and dry air aloft will keep convection
isolated through this evening and will dissipate as the sun sets
and heating of the day drops off. Bermuda high pressure will
once again dominate as weakening frontal boundary drifts back
north as warm front and easterly winds veer to the south. This
will reinforce the heat and humidity over the area through
Saturday.

Ridging aloft with increasing heights and plenty of dry air and
subsidence through the mid to upper levels will keep diurnal
localized convection limited again on Sat, mainly associated
with local effects such as sea breeze and farther inland along
the Piedmont trough.

Onshore flow will keep dew points in the low 70s today, recovering
into the mid 70s overnight. Lows tonight will be in the low to
mid 70s. Boundary layer winds will be light tonight with patchy
fog and low clouds possible mainly near daybreak with plenty of
sunshine thereafter. Temps will reach into the low to mid 90s on
Sat and the heat index values should remain just below Heat
Advisory thresholds, but the heat and humidity will be on the
increase over the weekend.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Saturday night should remain uneventful from a significant
weather standpoint with the ever present inland trough and
Bermuda High Pressure in place. Mid level height falls along
with an accompanying front will change things Sunday into
Monday. These features will bring likely to categorical pops in
time probably more enhanced Sunday afternoon and early evening.
A second and probably smaller uptick will occur Monday midday.
Overall it looks like the best chance for decent/widespread
rainfall in a while. All but unbearable dewpoints Sunday will
probably prompt yet another heat related headline.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The front that comes across earlier takes its time moving
through if it ever really does thus pops remain mainly southern
areas for a day or two. Precipitable water values really drop
off later Wednesday into Thursday leading to an unusual period
of of little to no pops. Recovering moisture along with the
inland trough and sea breeze warrant a muted increase in pops
for late in the period. Should see a break in heat related
headlines for the most part.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will continue through most of the period. Left out
thunderstorms in the TAFs with ridge aloft producing dry air and
subsidence limiting convection today. This does not mean that a
thunderstorm may not get close enough for a VCTS as sea breeze
boundary pushes inland with easterly onshore push but, overall
isolated. Any convection will dissipate with loss of heating
after sunset. Fog or low clouds possible tonight mainly 07z
through 13z with strato cu developing after 14z.

Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail outside of periodic
MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty
morning low clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
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Through Saturday...Bermuda high pressure will dominate again
into this weekend with easterly winds becoming southerly as a
lingering frontal boundary retreats north as a warm front.
E to SE up to 15 kts will become S through Sat with seas less
than 3 ft with a chop in the afternoon sea breeze. An easterly
swell around 2 ft and 9 seconds will mix in.

Saturday night through Tuesday...South to southwesterly winds
of 10-15 knots will be in place for the first couple of days
followed by a somewhat brief period of light northerly flow in
the wake of a front later Monday. After this a weak return flow
will develop and will be probably enhanced by the sea breeze.
Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased fire concerns are present across most of the area due to
low fuel moistures and current drought conditions. There are a
couple of chances of rainfall over the next week, with potentially
moderate rain late Sunday through Monday night, but is not expected
to be enough to alleviate dry conditions. While the forecast, namely
RH, remains above criteria for any NWS products, extra caution
should be used, especially with the upcoming holiday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...SHK/RGZ
FIRE WEATHER...ILM