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359
FXUS62 KILM 032336
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
736 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly winds will bring warmer and more humid air northward,
resulting in isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms through at least Thursday. A cold
front could reach the Carolinas on Friday, bringing a mainly
rain-free weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
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Forecast on track with convection winding down as heating of the
day ends with weak ridging aloft.

Updated Aviation Discussion below for 00Z TAFs.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are on
tap for the afternoon, mainly inland with fair weather expected
overnight.  A little more heat and humidity will be around Tuesday,
giving features like the sea breeze and piedmont trough a little
more instability to work. Widely scattered to scattered afternoon
showers and storms are possible on a day that should be more typical
of summer. Lows tonight will fall to the mid to upper 60s with highs
Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Pretty unsettled through much of the period.  This is in response to
some mid level impulses traversing the area in a low level warm
advection regime. In the absence of instability both nights  will
feature a relative minimum/sct POPs whereas Wednesday afternoon will
feature likely POPs. Models have trended towards showing slightly
less widespread coverage during the afternoon but for now have opted
to keep the forecast more pessimistic as in similar iterations.
Daytime highs  will be within a category of climo while nighttime
lows show a mild warming trend.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Warm advection will bring highs in the low 90s Thursday while
dewpoints creep up, most notably at the coast. The resulting
instability could once again feature a headily distribution of
showers and storms though like Wednesday some guidance now seems
less enthusiastic.  Cold front now due either late Thursday or
Thursday night. The latter part of the period will thus be rain-free
and with a trend back towards climo especially at night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Expect mostly VFR conditions to continue through the valid TAF
period but isolated storms could affect terminals, mainly
inland on Tues afternoon. Have put VCTS at LBT and FLO after 20z
on Tues. Winds will be light out of the S-SW with some backing
of winds and aftn gusts as sea breeze develops.

Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday, becoming a
little more widespread Thursday ahead of a front. VFR expected
Friday and Saturday.
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&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Fairly benign conditions are on tap over the
waters with SW winds of 10 KT or less and 2 FT seas.

Tuesday night through Saturday...  South to southwesterly winds will
be manageable in speed to most mariners early in the period ahead of
a cold front slated for Thursday night. Guidance isn`t indicating
much in the way of swell energy. Low veers to W and then NW,
somewhat gradually following the front. The more gradual wind shift
shouldn`t steepen wave faces much.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ/31
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...