-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
995
FXUS61 KILN 211735
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
135 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm conditions will continue today into Sunday. A cold front
will move through the region Sunday night into Monday, bringing
more seasonable temperatures for the start of the work week.
This will also result in occasional chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the first half of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A narrow corridor of SHRA, with some embedded TS, continues to
drift to the ESE across parts of N/NE KY and far srn OH this
morning. This activity will be shunted to the SE through the
rest of the AM, leading to increasingly dry/sunny conditions
across the local area for the afternoon.

Expect there will be some diurnally-driven Cu through early
afternoon as remnant moisture in the BL gradually mixes out. But
there should be an overall decrease in the cloud cover late in
the day as some drier air filters in from the N and remnant
moisture mixes out completely, especially near/N of the OH Rvr.
In fact, dewpoints may dip into the upper 40s for a few spots
in WC and central OH by early evening as temps near 90 degrees.
Temps will likely outperform guidance once again given the
magnitude of dry air/ground in place, so highs will likely reach
into the lower 90s for a few spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Mid level ridging will shift quickly east across the region
tonight into Sunday morning. On the backside of this, a mid
level short wave will move out of the mid Mississippi Valley
during the day on Sunday as an associated cold front approaches
our area from the west Sunday afternoon. Developing southwesterly
flow ahead of this will allow for some decent moisture
advection up into our region with PWs climbing up to around 2
inches or so through Sunday afternoon. This will lead to a
developing chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly through
the afternoon on Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s
to mid 60s with highs on Sunday ranging from the mid 80s in the
northwest to lower 90s in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid-level ridging will propagate eastward and be replaced by an
elongated trough. This synoptic feature will lead to an unsettled
weather pattern to start the week, providing a multi-day chance for
rain.

Coverage of showers and some thunderstorms will be greatest during
the daytime hours on Monday and Tuesday with diurnal enhancement.
Instability will be more limited on Monday, with higher values
further south towards portions of KY. While a rumble of thunder
cannot be ruled out north of the OH River, it does appear that
thunder potential is lower.

Surface low pressure and associated cold front will approach on
Tuesday. With the increased forcing and rising instability levels,
thunderstorm potential will be greatest on Tuesday, particularly
during the afternoon. Still not much of a signal in machine learning
for a severe risk, but CAMs will soon give more insight on any
strong storm potential. Cold front moves through Tuesday night and
will provide seasonable temperatures the remainder of the week.

High temperatures will be in the 70s majority of the work week,
especially by Wednesday after the cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The earlier SHRA/TSRA activity has shifted well to the SE of the
local terminals, with SCT VFR Cu lingering about for KILN and
points S as some remnant LL moisture gradually mixes out. This
VFR Cu should wane in coverage for KILN/KCVG/KLUK by late
afternoon into early evening before skies go mostly clear for
the overnight period.

Aside from a few cirrus from time-to-time, skies should be
mainly clear from 00z until about 15z when some additional
mid/high level moisture moves in from the W. This will be
accompanied by a decaying band of SHRA, which will attempt to
work eastward into the afternoon, but will encounter dry air
with eastward extent. So there is some uncertainty in just how
far E the activity makes it, but have included a VCSH at the
30-hr KCVG for now to indicate potential for some brief SHRA.

There could be some brief MVFR VSBY restrictions at KLUK in the
several hours around daybreak, but confidence in this occurring
is still somewhat low. Calm/light/VRB winds overnight will go
more out of the S at 5-10kts after 15z Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...KC