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192
FXUS63 KILX 021513
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1013 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple periods of heavier rain potential exist, one tonight
  west of I-55 and again Wednesday night into Thursday night.

- There will be some strong to severe thunderstorm potential west
  of the Illinois River tonight, and south of I-70 on Wednesday.

- Independence Day will be a bit cooler than normal, though that
  will be offset by muggy 70s dew points. While a dry period
  exists by afternoon, rain chances increase enough during the
  evening to complicate fireworks planning.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1012 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Late this morning, warm air advection precipitation continues
across portions of northern Illinois just outside the ILX county
forecast area. Wouldn`t completely rule out a sprinkle or two as
far south as I-74 but expect most of the area to be dry through
the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Meanwhile,
cirrus/cloud cover has began to clear west of a Galesburg to
Effingham line and anticipate areas east of there to clear by
around 1pm. Full sunshine across the area will allow temps to warm
into the mid to upper 80s with a few spots tagging 90F.

Deubelbeiss
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Central Illinois will be in SSE flow today, resulting in decent WAA
and weak moisture return. Highs today will get back up into the
upper 80s and lower 90s, with lows overnight in the 70s. By late
afternoon, a cold front will be approaching to the east. It is
expected to enter the western portion of the CWA around 00-03z this
evening. Strong to severe storms are possible west of the Illinois
River Valley. However, the storms are expected to quickly weaken and
dissipate as they move eastward across central Illinois into more
stable (MUCAPE: couple hundred J/kg) and drier air (dewpoints: 55-65
degrees).

As the front is expected to exit the SE CWA in the mid to late
afternoon tomorrow, storms could refire along the front. These
storms also have the potential to get strong/severe, but the
HRRR/NAMNest indicate that this new CI will be just south/east of
the CWA. Confidence that this second round will affect southeastern
Illinois is not high.

Independence Day (Thursday) will be slightly cooler than normal
which would be great for outdoor celebrations. The downer is that
there are several chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
day. The morning into afternoon has 50-80% POPs (increasing with
southern CWA extent). The activity during this time looks to be
scattered across central Illinois. A brief break in the showers is
possible late in the afternoon. From 00-06z Friday (7pm Thurs-1am
Fri), when firework displays will take place, chances increase again
to 50-60%. This round is just out of reach of the CAMs but the low-
res models show the evening round of precipitation moving through
from west to east starting around 03z Friday (10pm Thursday). If
this forecast checks out, it should give firework celebrations time
to go on. Nevertheless, this forecast is tricky and planning of
events may have some difficulty to them.

Starting Friday, a brief ridging will set up ahead of the next
system that will bring POPs into the area again Sunday. Temperatures
through the weekend will be pleasant, with highs in the low to mid
80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Winds will be out of the SSE today initially being gusty, ahead of a
frontal passage overnight. VFR conditions will primarily reign over
this TAF period. The cold front will bring showers and tstorms into
the area this evening. They are expected to make it to PIA and SPI
but further eastern sites are less confident, as they are expected
to weaken as they move east.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$