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160
FXUS63 KLBF 241708
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A marginal risk (risk level 1 of 5) of severe weather is possible
  this afternoon and evening across much of western and north
  central Nebraska.

* Hot temperatures are expected today as heat indices rise to over
  100 degrees allowing the heat advisory to remain in effect for
  portions of southwest and north central Nebraska.

* The next chance for significant thunderstorms arrives
  Wednesday night into Thursday, however, the severe potential
  remains low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The main weather concern for the short term will be the increasing
temperatures today. A surge of warm air advection will push surface
highs well into the mid 90s to low 100s (warmest across southwest
Nebraska) by this afternoon. Temperatures continue to be increased a
degree or two above guidance as confidence remains high in achieving
these highs. Latest probabilities continue to suggest high
temperatures of over 100 degrees are in in the 90+ percentile range
across southwest Nebraska, which only increases confidence in the
potential to rise above guidance. Not only will air temperatures
soar today, but these highs combined with increased moisture from
recent rainfall will push heat indices into the 100 to 105 degree
range for portions of southwest and north central Nebraska. Despite
increased temperatures and confidence, no changes have been made to
the going heat advisory. Temperatures should greatly lessen as the
sun begins to set and will quickly drop back into the mid 90s by mid-
evening allowing the heat advisory to expire by that time.

Some isolated precipitation chances are possible on this evening as
well, but confidence remains low and should be mainly diurnally
driven. While widespread severe storms are not anticipated with this
activity, an isolated stronger to briefly severe storm is entirely
possible especially if it can tap into some of the better
instability. Large hail would be the primary threats before
storms weaken by late evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Zonal flow will keep dry weather for the most part across the region
through the middle of the week. Temperatures moderate back into the
low 80s (northern Nebraska) to mid to upper 90s (south of I-80) for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible
again across portions of northern Nebraska on Tuesday evening. Again
these storms will be diurnally driven and widespread severe storms
are not anticipated.

The next major chance of precipitation will then arrive on Wednesday
night into Thursday night as a series of upper level troughs and
frontal passages move off the Rockies across the central Plains. At
this time, confidence still remains low in strength as well as track
of the systems and therefore severe weather potential remains low. A
marginal risk of severe storms has be introduced by SPC for storm
development on Wednesday night across the High Plains where the best
instability exists at this time. This may change in the next few
days as instability shifts and the models get a better handle on the
overall environment. Lingering rain will continue into Saturday
morning bringing a wet start to next weekend with just some isolated
rain shower chances for Sunday. Plenty of clouds and rain will allow
high temperatures to fall back into the mid 70s to mid 80s for the
weekend. Low temperatures will also drop over the weekend with a
chilly low 50s across northern Nebraska for Friday and Saturday
nights.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
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Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Little more than some mid clouds over central and western
Nebraska early this afternoon, but there may be some isolated
thunderstorm development late in the day and into this evening.
Coverage is expected to be sparse so not enough confidence to
warrant a TEMPO or even a VCTS. Will monitor radar trends
closely and amend if activity develops on a trajectory to impact
a TAF site. Any convection will wane quickly with loss of
diurnal heating toward sunset so expect dry conditions
overnight and through the end of the valid period. There is a
hint for some sub-VFR CIGs to move down from the north and
affect KVTN late Tuesday morning but probabilistic guidance
shows a 30 percent chance or less for CIGs at or below 3kft AGL,
so will put in some low VFR SCT clouds and see if a trend for
lower CIGs develops as later guidance becomes available.

The boundary layer is hot, dry, and deeply mixed. This will
create some gusty conditions into early this evening before
winds diminish for the overnight period. Note however that in
this environment any storms that do develop will be capable of
producing strong and erratic gusty outflow winds that may
travel a good distance from the parent convection. Lack of
confidence in timing and location of convection prohibits a
specific mention in the TAF but pilots should anticipate rapid
changes in wind speed and direction near any thunderstorms.
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&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ007-010-027>029-038-059-069>071.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...MBS