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203
FXUS64 KMEG 041948
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
248 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Hot and humid conditions will prevail for Independence Day. A few
strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.
A brief period of mostly dry and cooler conditions will return
tomorrow before rain chances ramp up again on Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Hot and humid conditions encompass the Mid-South as of 2 PM with
heat indices ranging from 105-113 degrees. A few stray showers and
thunderstorms are depicted on KNQA at this hour due to the surge of
moisture ahead of an approaching shortwave. At this time, these
storms currently are only threatening heavy rain and frequent
lightning. An Excessive Heat Warning for the entire area will
continue through 9 PM.

A stalled frontal boundary is currently stretched from the Great
Lakes to central Missouri. This boundary is pulling moisture ahead
of itself and allowing scattered storms to develop in its wake. As
this boundary slowly starts moving, a bowing segment will dive SSE
across Arkansas and West Tennessee late tonight into tomorrow
morning. The bowing segment appears to hit a localized vorticity
maxima as it should exit the region by late tomorrow morning.

Confidence remains low in severe storm development as shear is on
the lower end nearing 30 kts. The lack of shear and mid-level lapse
rates near 5 C/km indicate convection would remain surface based (as
there is plentiful SBCAPE) and will likely quickly fizzle out once
daytime heating ends. Nonetheless, if a strong to severe storm does
develop it would most likely be in extreme northeast Arkansas, the
Missouri Bootheel, and extreme northwest Tennessee.

A cold front will sweep across the region tomorrow evening keeping
rain chances around through Saturday morning. Friday may still be a
bit humid in some portions of the Mid-South, particularly north
Mississippi, until the drier air can prevail. A Heat Advisory may be
needed, but given the potential for convection and cloud cover,
holding off on issuance for now. Residing behind the front, is a
brief period of cooler conditions with highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s beginning on Saturday. Zonal flow will keep conditions
dry briefly. Sunday brings the return of rain chances as the
possible remnants of Hurricane Beryl interact with a trough. There
is a high level of uncertainty with the interaction, so we will
continue to monitor for now.

DNM
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions continue for now. VCTS is expected to develop this
afternoon with some question as to location and coverage so have
included as such for most TAF sites. Additional TSRA will move in
overnight into the early morning hours and could lead to some
periodic category restrictions. Winds will generally remain
between 5 to 10 kts, currently SW/S becoming NW near the end of
the current TAF period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-
     018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-
     115.

MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CMA