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339
FXUS63 KMKX 262000
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
300 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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-  Showers and scattered storms for Friday into early Saturday.
   There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms during this
   time.

-  River flooding and high water levels will continue this week
   and into this weekend.

-  Moderate Swim Risk for Lake Michigan beaches into tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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Issued 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Tonight through Thursday night:

There may be some sprinkles that occur with some lingering weak
instability until early this evening. The lake breeze boundary
may help initiate this activity, as well as from peak heating.
The lake breeze boundary may meander east and west near the
lakeshore as well.

A Moderate Swim Risk is anticipated into tonight for the Lake
Michigan beaches from Sheboygan County south to Kenosha County,
with increasing northeast winds and building waves of 2 to 4
feet.

High pressure building into the region tonight into Thursday
will bring quiet weather. There may be ground fog overnight in
low lying areas. Cooler but still pleasant temperatures are
expected during this period, with highs Thursday in the middle
70s inland. Onshore winds should keep lakeshore areas in the
upper 60s. The high will shift to the east Thursday night, with
middle to high clouds gradually increasing.

Wood
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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Issued 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Friday through Wednesday:

Models and ensembles continue to show warm air and moisture
advection Friday into Friday night, followed by a cold frontal
passage on Saturday morning. There is a shortwave trough
shifting through the area Friday afternoon, with a south to
southwest low level jet feeding into the region during this
time. This should result in periods of showers, with elevated
thunderstorms at times Friday into Friday night.

Forecast soundings continue to show some tall skinny elevated
CAPE, with deep layer bulk shear of 25 to 35 knots and
precipitable water values nearing 2.00 inches. At this time, it
looks like mainly a small hail and perhaps gusty winds with the
stronger storms during this time.

One thing to watch will be if there is any mean layer CAPE that
develops Saturday morning ahead of the cold front. The deep
layer shear is 30 to 40 knots or more, so there could be more of
a strong to severe risk then. It would be better if the cold
front came through later in the day for that potential, so
definitely still uncertainty for severe storms.

High pressure should bring dry conditions for later Saturday
into Sunday or Sunday night/Monday morning, with cooler and less
humid conditions.

Ensembles continue to indicate a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms with warm air advection for Monday night into
Tuesday or Wednesday. Uncertainty with the placement of features
during this time, but it does look wet.

Wood
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&&

.AVIATION...
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Issued 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

There may be some sprinkles that occur until early this
evening. The lake breeze boundary may help initiate this
activity. The lake breeze boundary may meander east and west
near the lakeshore as well, affecting Milwaukee with northwest
to northeast winds each occuring at times.

High pressure building into the region tonight into Thursday
will bring quiet weather. There may be ground fog in low lying
areas. Light and variable winds tonight will become light east
to northeast on Thursday, then east to southeast Thursday night.
The high will shift to the east Thursday night, with middle to
high clouds gradually increasing.

Wood
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Gusty north to northeast winds are expected into tonight over
the open waters of Lake Michigan. High pressure around 30.1
inches will slowly move across Lake Michigan on Thursday,
bringing weakening winds.

Northeast winds and building waves should be below Small Craft
Advisory levels into tonight for the nearshore waters.

Increasing southeast to south winds are then forecast for
Friday into Friday night, becoming southwest to west on
Saturday, as a cold front moves through the region.

Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels Friday
into Friday night, mainly north of Port Washington.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase during this
period. Gusty northwest winds then should occur Saturday night
into Sunday, before high pressure around 30.2 inches moves into
the region Sunday night.

Wood
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&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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