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318
FXUS63 KMPX 022310
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
610 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of rain ongoing this afternoon, best chances
  for heavy rain and thunderstorms from south central MN to
  western WI.

- Thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall likely for the 4th
  of July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow... Pockets of light showers are making their
way into western Minnesota, while some heavier showers/storms are
tracking into portions of southern Minnesota. Satellite imagery
shows widespread low level stratus still hanging around across much
of Wisconsin this afternoon, with some cooler cloud tops starting to
pop up along the Iowa/Minnesota border associated with the
convection. Any stronger storms should stay south into Iowa where
the greatest instability is located, given there has been less
persistent cloud cover there. These showers will continue into the
evening, spreading further north and east over time. As this system
exits, ridging will move in, allowing for a really solid summer day
tomorrow with temperatures in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies.

Thursday and Friday... This is looking more and more likely to be an
active period as model agreement argues for rain chances starting
Thursday morning and lasting through early Friday evening. There
could be multiple periods of rain as the upper level trough
gradually makes its way east through the Upper Midwest, resulting in
a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for localized heavy rain and
flooding concerns. The current forecast calls for widespread
0.5-1" of rain, with up to 2+" possible for areas across west-
central and southern Minnesota. Given the recent stretch of
above normal rainfall, there is a lower threshold for flooding
within this area. Any rain that falls in the morning would be
more showery, while the afternoon/evening could bring heavy
showers and storms. The severity of any storms that develop
would be largely dependent on how the morning rain pans out.
More persistent and drawn out rain would favor less instability
for PM storms, while more off-and-on morning showers with a peek
of sunshine in between would favor more instability for
thunderstorm development later in the day. Overall, the severe
threat is marginal (level 1 out of 5), but given the amount of
outdoor events taking place during the holiday, even just some
general thunder bears watching out for.

The Weekend... The active weather could continue into the weekend as
a shortwave looks to slide down from Canada. Timing on this is still
uncertain, but is currently favored to move into northwestern
Minnesota by late Saturday and then track southeast into Sunday
morning. Amounts look to be on the lighter side, but could again
impact any outdoor events taking place during this busy weekend.
Temperatures will stay around average for this time of year, ranging
from the low 60s for lows to low 80s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 554 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

For MN terminals, a few light rain showers are possible for MKT
and MSP this evening. However, no significant impacts are
expected from this precipitation. Conditions will remain VFR the
entire period as mid-level stratus clears out tonight. For RNH
and EAU, periods of rain showers are expected the next few hours
with cigs remaining at IFR into tonight. However, cigs should
lift as skies clear overnight resulting in VFR late tonight
through the end of the period. West-southwesterly winds will
slow to around or below 5 knots tonight, becoming more westerly
and increasing to around 10 knots by Wednesday afternoon.

KMSP...Scattered rain showers are possible until 01Z but
conditions will be VFR the entire period as cigs improve.
Westerly winds during Wednesday afternoon will be around 10
knots with gusts reaching 20 knots.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR/IFR SHRA/TSRA, mainly PM. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
FRI...MVFR SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind N 10G20 kts.
SAT...Chance MVFR/SHRA/TSRA, mainly PM. Wind W 5-10 kts.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...CTG