-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
304
FXUS63 KMPX 291059
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
559 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and dry this weekend will help as area rivers remain
  high from recent rainfall.

- Rain returns to the forecast Monday into Tuesday.

- Independence Day forecast continues to look wet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

This weekend... Early Saturday morning a small chance for rain
remains as a cold front passes through. So far there has been
little activity along the front. Some CAMs like the HRRR
continue to suggest that some activity will form along the front
in central Minnesota. However there is little sign of this
occurring so far in observations and without the typical strong
LLJ that would typically drive this type of rain, it remains
unlikely. With clear skies and moist air ahead of the front we
have seen some patchy dense fog. This has been most likely in
low lying areas and near bodies of water. Since it has been
localized so far no advisory has been issued. The rest of the
weekend`s weather will be driven by the high pressure moving
into the Upper Midwest from the Northern Plains. This will bring
mostly clear skies and cooler air for the rest of the weekend.

Monday and Tuesday... The weekend high pressure will move east
across the Great Lakes on Sunday night allowing for a shift in
the weather. Warmer and moist air will advect into the Upper
Midwest on Monday. With this moisture cloud cover will return,
which could limit how much we actually warm up on Monday. This
warming could be further limited by evaporative cooling from
expected rain. With forcing from a shortwave aloft and a
potentially favorable location of the jet streak we will likely
have the forcing for another wet period. This is supported in
the NAEFS as we have above the 99th percentile PW and IVT
suggesting that we will have plenty of moisture to work with.
This will be from Monday into Tuesday with a two day period of
rain chances. It will be up to the mesoscale, which still has a
fair amount of uncertainty on where and when during the two days
the bulk of this rain will fall. However, as discussed above,
the synoptic setup is favorable for rain. How soon rain will
form will be important in the chances for any strong to severe
storms. The SPC has a slight (2 of 5) risk across western MN
with a marginal (1 of 5) risk to east extending to around Eau
Claire, WI. If significant rain can form early in the day that
could limit the instability for later in the day limiting the
chances for CI. A drier start to Monday would increase the
chances for strong storms later in the day. Another shortwave
moves in on Tuesday driving a second day of rain chances. More
rain is expected, but with the continued WAA there is a chance
that a stout cap could form limiting the chance for convection
(therefore the chance for severe and heavy rain could be
limited). This cap is seen in some, but not all model
solutions. On the heavy rain and flooding threat side of Monday
and Tuesday there remains a wide spread in the ensemble QPF right
now as one would expect this time of year thanks to convection
being the primary driver of heavy rain. It won`t be until later
in the weekend that we get a better idea of the mesoscale setup
such that we will better know where the heaviest rain will fall.

Wednesday through Friday... We look to have a brief dry period
mid week before another wave moves over us bringing with it
another chance for rain. This would be on the 4th into the 5th
possibly giving us a wet Independence Day. Pretty good
confidence in the ensembles that rain will occur, but how much
and what time still has notable spread. As the last discussion
said we are still a few days out from having confidence on the
details here. Beyond this system through there is some sign in
guidance that we might get a more prolonged period of drier
weather as the more active part of the upper pattern shifts to
the north into Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 551 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Gusty northwest winds & borderline VFR/MVFR ceilings will
accompany a cold front as it moves through the area this
morning. The best chances for MVFR ceilings will be across
western & southern Minnesota, while ceilings may hover at or
just above the MVFR/IFR threshold at metro & western WI
terminals. Ceilings will gradually rise during the afternoon
with all sites expected to be VFR by mid-afternoon & clouds
clearing out after sunset. Northwest winds will increase this
morning with the frontal passage; speeds around 15-20 kts with
gusts of 25-30 kts are expected through the afternoon before the
winds begin to diminish this evening. Calm winds develop after
sunset & into tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Ceilings are expected to hover around the VFR/MVFR
threshold (FL030) from late morning into mid-afternoon, but will
stay above any critical arrival thresholds. Gusty northwest
winds develop by mid-morning with peak gusts as high as 30 kts
during the early afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN PM...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.
MON...VFR. MVFR RA/TSRA likely late Wind SE 15G25 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chance MVFR RA/TSRA. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
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&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...ETA/TDK