Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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174 FXUS64 KMRX 210522 AAC AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 122 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 926 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Forecast on track this evening with no updates. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 A mostly sunny afternoon across the forecast area with temperatures at mid afternoon in the mid to upper 80s to near 90. A drier airmass is in place with scattered cumulus and dew points in the lower to mid 60s. Current forecast will continue as is except a degree or two warming for Friday. Upper ridge is still holding strong over the mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley this afternoon. Winds are light and variable as well and heat index values are only in the lower 90s at mid afternoon. For the next 24 hours the center of the ridge shifts west and will be almost overhead Friday. Expecting temperatures to be slightly warmer Friday but no significant changes in the forecast. Heat index values will reach the mid to upper 90s Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Key Messages: 1. Above average temperatures continue with strong ridging in place. 2. Increasing rain chances Sunday into early next week. Discussion: Anomalously high 500 mb heights will continue to bring subsidence to the area through Saturday, leading to above normal temperatures and dry, stable conditions. Some isolated, short- lived showers and storms may be possible in the higher terrain Saturday afternoon. The upper ridge retrogrades and flattens across the Ohio Valley on Sunday as a shortwave trough and associated surface front moves eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Greater low level moisture ahead of this trough/front and lower upper heights will increase instability, with higher probabilities for showers and thunderstorms starting on Sunday and continuing through the first half of next week. The highest chance of precip appears to be Sunday afternoon and Sunday night with the passage of the aforementioned shortwave trough and surface front. Behind this system, we will have a SW low level flow that will maintain above normal temperatures with humid conditions on Monday and Tuesday, along with a chance of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Models show a deeper trough that may bring higher rain chances to the area in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame, with potentially a break the the heat behind that system. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS) Issued at 116 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Removed fog from KTRI with the 06z TAF issuance. Guidance not exactly bullish on it occurring, and there are still some FEW-SCT low and mid clouds around. Don`t think the odds are zero but not confident enough to keep it in. Otherwise, ridging aloft begins to weaken somewhat today so expect to see quite a bit of CU around this afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest this will be shallow, so do not expect any SHRA/TSRA to develop. Winds will remain light.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 72 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 71 94 72 / 10 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 93 71 94 71 / 10 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 67 92 69 / 10 10 10 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM....DGS AVIATION...CD