Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

Current Version |  Previous Version |  Graphics & Text |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
690 FXUS65 KPSR 171750 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1050 AM MST Mon Jun 17 2024 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated 18z Aviation Discussion...
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SYNOPSIS... Critical fire weather conditions headline the impactful weather for the early portions of the week as breezy to windy conditions develop today. Cooler temperatures will persist through mid-week, with hotter temperatures and increasing moisture levels leading to increasing thunderstorm chances late this week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Dry, zonal flow continues to encompass the region early this morning. However, the weather pattern is in transition as a troughing feature currently centered over the Pacific Northwest will continue to dig into the Great Basin, resulting in negative height anomalies digging into the Desert Southwest going through the middle of the week. As a result, temperatures will moderate by several degrees back to just a few degrees above normal through Wednesday. While the cooling temperatures is a nice development, the consequence of falling heights is a more energetic mid-level troposphere, resulting in strong winds developing, especially for today. Since the current fire danger is high to very high, a Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon and evening for areas with the strongest winds, which includes the higher terrain areas of southcentral Arizona. Winds are expected to increase into the 15-25 mph range, with gusts up to 35 mph during this period. As the troughing feature slowly weakens through mid-week, the fire weather conditions should relax to elevated levels as opposed to the critical level for today due to the weakening winds. Heading into the latter portions of the week, ensembles remain in good agreement of mid-level heights building again, resulting in hotter temperatures developing once again going into this weekend. High pressure from the Midwest region of the country will retrograde westward, leading to this warming trend. Highs are likely (40-70%) to reach or exceed the 110 degree mark by Thursday, peaking on Friday (60-90%), and remaining a possibility (30-60%) through this weekend. Another trend to monitor is the overnight lows, as this retrograding high is projected to usher in higher moisture levels in the low levels of the atmosphere, resulting in warmer overnight lows. At this juncture, the deterministic NBM is depicting lows for the Phoenix metro rising from the mid to upper 70s early this week to lows in the mid to upper 80s going into this weekend (20-40% chance central Phoenix has a low of 90 degrees or warmer as early as Thursday night). There remains a bit of uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of increasing moisture levels, leading to a 5-10 degree spread with the interquartile ranges for the low temperatures Friday night onward. Due to this uncertainty, the level of heat impacts will need to be monitored as overnight lows will likely be the determining factor in whether more excessive heat products are needed for late this week and into the weekend. At this time, Moderate HeatRisk dominates the region on Thursday and Saturday, with Major HeatRisk mainly across southcentral AZ developing on Friday. As mentioned, ensembles show a strong signal for increasing moisture levels, at least in the lower portions of the troposphere, late this week and continuing through this weekend. The outlook hasn`t changed much over the last 24 hours, as the main push of moisture commences on Thursday, as the high retrogrades and southeasterly flow develops. The noticeable difference for the current ensemble runs is a much more optimistic outlook from the GEPS, as opposed to the more stable outlooks from the GEFS and EPS. Nonetheless, thunderstorm chances are projected to increase for the higher terrain of southcentral AZ on Thursday (5-15% chance) and continuing into Friday (20-30%), while lower deserts remain generally around 10% at most. PWAT`s in excess of 1.00" is a reasonable scenario for southcentral AZ heading into the weekend, with these moisture levels (and higher, potentially up to 1.50" in spots) looking like a good bet to continue possibly into next week. Thus, daily thunderstorm chances would continue for southcentral AZ, although ensembles depict the moisture axis migrating westward through the weekend to the AZ/CA border, thus leading to a less favorable pattern for higher (i.e. 25%+) chances for the higher terrain thunderstorms going into early next week. Regardless, monitoring the high pressure development and evolution/movement will be key in determining how good (or bad) thunderstorm chances will truly become late week and into (and through) the weekend for southcentral AZ. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated at 1740Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Main aviation weather concern through this evening will be the gusty winds. Southerly winds are expected for the next few hours before switching out of the west to southwest by early this afternoon. Wind gusts through early this afternoon will be in the mid to upper teens before increasing further through the rest of the afternoon peaking at 25 kts. Speeds will slacken off by the mid- evening hours with a return to easterly winds expected during the overnight hours. Skies will remain clear through the period. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Main aviation weather concern through this evening will be the gusty winds. West winds are expected at KIPL while south to southwest winds are expected expected at KBLH. Wind speeds are expected to increase this afternoon and remain elevated into the evening hours with gusts as high as 25 kts, potentially peaking close to 30 kts at KIPL. Speeds will slacken off by later this evening through the overnight hours. Skies will remain clear through the remainder of the day.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .FIRE WEATHER... A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for the higher terrain northeast of Phoenix on Monday afternoon and evening for critical fire weather conditions, as winds gust as high as 30-35 mph and relative humidity levels as low as 7-12% are anticipated. Fuel moisture across southcentral AZ is now critically dry with ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile, or near the climatological maximum for this time of year. These conditions will result in the rapid spread of wind driven wildfires if one were to begin. Cooler temperatures and lighter wind speeds will reduce the fire weather risk, but remain elevated, by the middle of this week, however relative humidity will still remain around 10-15% on Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight recovery will remain at or below 40%. Strong high pressure is expected to build back over the region by Thursday resulting in very hot temperatures, but wind speeds are expected to remain light. Mid-range models are in agreement that we will see an uptick in low level moisture across the eastern districts late this week into this weekend, resulting in a low chance (10-30%) of thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southcentral AZ. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
AZ...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ133. CA...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ DISCUSSION...Young AVIATION...Lojero FIRE WEATHER...Young/Salerno