Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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634 FXUS65 KPSR 232337 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 437 PM MST Sun Jun 23 2024 .UPDATE...
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Updated Aviation section.
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&& .SYNOPSIS... Elevated moisture will continue to result in daily thunderstorm chances through at least the middle of this week, with the highest chances confined over the higher terrain areas. Temperatures today will be near to slightly above normal but then warm up somewhat heading through the middle of the week as high pressure strengthens over the Desert Southwest. && .DISCUSSION... An expansive subtropical ridge centered over Texas is continuing to provide a southerly wind flow across the region, providing moisture advection into the region with well-above normal in PWATs in place. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis depicts PWAT values ranging between 1.7-2.0" across most of central and southern AZ and between 1.5-1.9" across southeast CA. These PWAT values are currently near 250% of normal for this time of the year. The highly anomalous moisture content, similar to yesterday, has resulted a stream of mid to high-level clouds to encompass most of south-central AZ from Phoenix and points eastward through southern Gila County with radar showing a few light showers/virga in association. Once again the cloud cover is adding a layer of complexity when it comes to convective potential later this afternoon/evening as it will likely limit the overall instability across south-central AZ. This is reflected in the latest hi-res model guidance, which shows very limited activity across south-central AZ the rest of today with most of the activity confined across the High Country and southeast AZ where better insolation and orographic lifting will aid in storm development. There is a slight chance, however, that portions of southwest AZ in the vicinity of the Kofa Mountains as well as the higher terrain areas in northeast La Paz County as well as Joshua Tree National Park in southeast CA could see storms pop up this afternoon as these areas are seeing better insolation and thus higher instability. Even though south-central AZ may not see much in the way of storms, any outflows from distant storms could still impact the area with a 10-30% chance of winds exceeding 35+ mph. Given the high moisture content as well as the very weak steering motion in place, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will be the biggest threat with gusty winds being a secondary threat given the more limited DCAPE. The subtropical ridge will continue to migrate westward and be centered near the AZ/NM border heading into the first half of the week while also strengthening slightly in the process as 500 mb height fields increase from 592-593dm currently to 594-596dm by mid-week, increasing the subsidence aloft. Still, with abundant moisture remaining in place with PWATs projected to remain at 1.5+", daily thunderstorm activity is still expected, mainly across the higher terrain areas. There continues to be excellent agreement amongst the ensembles of a large-scale trough moving through the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West Region by the latter half of the week. This troughing feature will weaken the subtropical ridge over the Desert Southwest but at the same time will cause the mean flow to become westerly, which is likely to advect drier air into the region. Thus, heading through the end of the week and at least into the start of next weekend, the overall thunderstorm activity is likely to trend downward across the majority of the region. This drying trend, however, looks to be short-lived as once the troughing feature lifts away into Canada by late next weekend, the subtropical ridge is likely to re- strengthen to our east with a more southerly flow returning. This would increase the monsoonal moisture once again heading into the first week of July, increasing thunderstorm activity. With the abundant cloud cover and high moisture content in place, temperatures today across the lower deserts will continue to average near normal with highs in the mid to upper 100s. As the upper-level ridge builds over the area through midweek, temperatures are expected to heat up some with highs likely topping out between 109-112 degrees across the lower deserts. Even though these temperatures will keep the overall HeatRisk in the moderate category, it will still be sufficiently hot and humid that the necessary heat precautions should still be taken if engaging in outdoor activities. Temperatures are likely to cool off slightly as the ridge weakens towards the end of the week. && .AVIATION...
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Updated at 2337Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Cloud cover has been thinning this afternoon but instability is expected to be insufficient for storm development over the Valley floor this evening. However, storm activity over southeast AZ and Yavapai County will lead to the potential for outflows to affect the TAF sites this evening roughly between 02Z-04Z but not necessarily with strong winds. Anticipate southeasterly outflow to be more likely to reach KIWA and KPHX and northerly outflow to reach KDVT and KSDL. Of course, that is subject to change. Otherwise, expect generally light winds with a lot of directional variability tonight and Monday morning followed by light west by early afternoon. As for sky cover, anticipate ceilings to remain AOA FL200. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: At KIPL, S/SEly winds will be most common through the forecast period. One caveat is storm activity over the northern Baja MX mountains which may produce outflow that could lead to a SWly wind shift. At KBLH, expect SWly/Sly directions to prevail for much of the forecast period. However, storm activity currently over southwest Yavapai County is anticipated to expand into southern Mohave County and produce some southwestward moving outflow later this afternoon and evening. The end result at KBLH is anticipated to be a change from southerly to variable directions later this evening but with speeds below 10kts. Southerly breeziness (gusts to 20kts) resumes during the day Monday. As for sky cover anticipate SCT-BKN cirrus with FEW high based cumulus during the afternoon.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... Monsoonal moisture will continue to result in daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity, with the best chances for activity across the higher terrain areas. With the elevated moisture in place, MinRH values through early this week will range between 35-45% across the far eastern districts to between 15-25% across the western districts before slowly drying into the middle to latter half of next week. Winds will follow their typical daily tendencies, with gusty outflows from any thunderstorm activity anticipated over the next several days. Temperatures through today will average near to slightly above normal before increasing some heading into the middle of next week. Chances for wetting rains will generally remain around 15-25% for the higher terrain areas and 5-10% for the lower deserts of south-central Arizona through the first half of the week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lojero AVIATION...AJ FIRE WEATHER...Young/Lojero