Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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776 FXUS62 KRAH 251146 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 745 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across and offshore the southern Middle Atlantic today, then continue to extend westward across the South Atlantic states through Wednesday. A pre-frontal trough, then weak cold front, will move across NC Thursday and Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 350 AM Tuesday... Continued hot with temperatures 5-10 F above average, but with another day of seasonably low mixed/afternoon surface dewpoints in the upr 50s over the nrn Piedmont to low-mid 60s elsewhere. A 320 dam 700 mb anticyclone centered over the mid-South in 00Z/25th upr air data will move east and extend across the TN Valley and NC by tonight, as will its related ridge of warm and dry air through the mid-levels. That warming and drying will reinforce an already strong subsidence inversion evident around 700 mb on the 00Z- observed GSO and RNK RAOBs. At the surface, a weak cold front now over sern NC will will settle settle swd and dissipate over SC through tonight, while a ~1016 mb high will build across and offshore the srn Middle Atlantic. Light, generally nely flow around that high will gradually veer to sely/sly later today-tonight. Associated onshore flow will direct a sea breeze into the Sandhills and srn-cntl Coastal Plain this evening. An isolated, afternoon-evening shower or storm will be possible across the far srn Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain, where point forecast soundings depict a little lee prominent subsidence/capping inversion that may be breached with sea breeze forcing, with dry conditions otherwise and elsewhere. High temperatures will again reach the 90s area-wide, with lows, accompanied by areas of morning stratus, in the upr 60s-lwr 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 425 AM Tuesday... Hotter, and slightly more humid. A 700 mb anticyclone will weaken a few decameters as it builds across and offshore NC. It will do so downstream of a shortwave perturbation, now over srn BC, which will amplify slightly while pivoting from the upr MS Valley at 12Z Wed ewd and across the Great Lakes and nrn Middle Atlantic through 12Z Thu. The models indicate the equatorward portion of the trough will be accompanied by a positively-tilted, convectively-amplified mid-level trough from the srn Middle Atlantic to the TN and lwr MS Valleys through the same time. 850 mb standardized temperature anomalies beneath and downstream of the 700 mb anticyclone are forecast to be around 3 sigma above average over the Carolinas, with daily record 850 mb temperatures possible at GSO. At the surface, weak high pressure that will migrate off the srn Middle Atlantic coast through 12Z Wed will become absorbed by a larger and stronger high anchored over the cntl Atlantic. An associated ridge, and broad sly/swly flow, will extend wwd and across the South Atlantic states, while an Appalachian-lee trough will develop Wed over the srn Middle Atlantic Foothills/wrn Piedmont. A synoptic cold front will meanwhile approach from the northwest and settle into the pre-frontal/lee trough position and extend from the Delmarva swwd to the srn Appalachians/wrn Carolinas by 12Z Thu. The front/trough may be preceded by remnant convective outflow over the srn Middle Atlantic Piedmont, including in cntl NC. The pattern described above will favor what may be the hottest day yet during the ongoing stretch of heat that began over cntl NC this past weekend, with forecast high temperatures 8-14 F above average and mostly in the mid 90s to around 100, including near the daily record of 102 F at RDU. Seasonable, mixed/afternoon surface dewpoints mostly in the mid-upr 60s will yield Heat Index values 2-5 F on average higher than air temperatures and in the upr 90s over the nw Piedmont to 100-105 F elsewhere. Isolated convection will be possible particularly along/in the vicinity of both the lee trough (over the far wrn Piedmont) and sea breeze (Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain) during the afternoon-early evening, followed by a slightly higher chance (25-40%) of showers/storms accompanying the approach/arrival of the aforementioned convectively-amplified mid- level trough and convective outflow, mainly over the Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain, overnight. It will otherwise be muggy and quite mild, with low temperatures 5-10 F above average and mostly in the lwr-mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... As of 300 AM Tuesday... A cold front should extend from northeast to southwest across the forecast area Thursday morning, and it will continue to slide southeast through the day. At this point, Thursday afternoon currently looks like the best chance for rain in the next 7 days, with likely pops extending south and east from Raleigh. While instability values should be modest, between 1000-2000 J/kg, the vertical wind profile shows very little shear, which will make it hard for any thunderstorms to become organized and produce severe weather. The chance for thunderstorms will continue into the evening, and another round of thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon with the front loitering in the region - ensembles show the chance of showers/storms extending a bit farther to the north on Friday than they did 24 hours ago. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out on Saturday, but the next chance of storms across the region will come Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday with another front. The NAEFS shows a higher probability of rain Sunday night than Thursday, but this remains an outlier solution. There will be minimal relief from the heat with Thursday`s front, although highs should drop 3-5 degrees from Wednesday`s values. Still, most of the region will reach the 90s again. Friday`s high will be similar to Thursday`s, then an upper ridge will build over the Southeast for the weekend, bringing a renewed surge of heat and humidity. Saturday and particularly Sunday are the days with the highest heat indices, with nearly all locations over 100 degrees on Sunday. While humidity will remain high on Monday, highs should be 5- 10 degrees cooler compared to Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 745 AM Tuesday... Primarily VFR conditions, and a couple of layers of stratocumulus (5- 6 thousand ft) and altocumulus (8-10 thousand ft), are expected through tonight. The exception will be a chance of IFR-MVFR ceilings mainly at FAY around daybreak Thu. Light, generally nely surface winds this morning are forecast to veer to sely/sly today-tonight, around high pressure that will build across and offshore the srn Middle Atlantic. Outlook: IFR-MVFR stratus will be possible mainly at FAY and RWI Thu and Fri morning. A chance of mainly afternoon-evening showers/storms will also return to the forecast for Wed through the weekend, with the relative highest probabilities at FAY/RWI on Thu. Additionally, the development of an Appalachian-lee, nocturnal low-level jet across and offshore the Middle Wed night may result in marginal low- level wind shear in cntl NC during that time.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 25: KRDU: 100/1952 KFAY: 102/1914 June 26: KRDU: 102/1952 KFAY: 101/1951 June 27: KFAY: 102/1998 June 30: KFAY: 102/2012 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 25: KRDU: 77/2010 KFAY: 75/1952 June 26: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 76/1902 KFAY: 76/1997 June 27: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 77/1998 June 28: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 78/1914 June 29: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 78/1914 KFAY: 76/1969 June 30: KGSO: 74/1936 KRDU: 80/1936 KFAY: 79/1936 July 1: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 75/2012 KFAY: 76/1990 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...MWS CLIMATE...RAH