-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
670
FXUS62 KRAH 241028
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
630 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong mid level trough and accompanying surface front will cross
North Carolina today, then settle just to our southeast tonight.
Weak high pressure will pass over the area late tonight through
early Tuesday, then push quickly offshore late Tuesday, allowing hot
and humid conditions to return for Wednesday. Another front will
approach from the northwest early Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Monday...

Temps will remain above normal today, although humidity will be
trending lower through the day. A potent mid level shortwave will
move through the eastern Great Lakes, St Lawrence Valley, and
Northeast toward NB/NS through the day. The corresponding surface
front will approach the Appalachians this morning and likely jump
into the prefrontal trough over the NC Piedmont by early afternoon,
before pushing ESE and to our southeast by early evening. As other
shifts have alluded to, this front will be more of a dewpoint front,
with values dropping into the 60s, while the actual temperature
change will be very modest, just a few degrees at most.

It still appears that convection chances ahead of and along the
front will be largely confined to this afternoon over our southeast
half, particularly S and E of Raleigh, a scenario supported by
recent HREF output and several recent RAP runs. The W Piedmont will
see falling PWs and surface dewpoints by midday, limiting afternoon
SBCAPE, with low level flow becoming northwesterly. But from the
Triangle to the S and E, with decent heating and still-elevated
prefrontal dewpoints allowing for moderate SBCAPE by early afternoon
and greatly steepening 925-700 mb lapse rates to 8.5-9.5 C/km, we
should see initially isolated convection grow upscale and become
scattered to numerous as they push SE of Raleigh. With these steep
lapse rate and improving deep layer bulk shear to 25-35 kt along the
southern fringe of the mid level trough, a few intense downbursts
are possible. By early to mid evening, most CAMs depict convection
winding down and exiting as the front starts to settle to our SE and
drier low level air spills in from the NW. A few clouds may linger
overnight across the SE, but otherwise we should see a clearing
trend from the NW with dry weather after midnight.

Given the slightly lower temps (I hesitate to say "cooler") and
lowering dewpoints with enough clouds to temper isolation a bit, we
don`t have heat advisory concerns today, although of course caution
should still be exercised given the prolonged period of above normal
temps. Expect highs today in the lower to mid 90s, and lows in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Expect a mostly dry day with returning heat. The weak high pressure
passing over the Mid Atlantic region early Tue will quickly weaken
further and push offshore, placing our area back into a light
southerly component flow with low level thicknesses rebounding back
to around 10 m above normal. PWs will have dropped to around 1",
with higher values lingering near our extreme SE sections, where an
isolated afternoon storm can`t be ruled out, particularly along an
inland-pushing sea breeze. Otherwise, skies should be fair with deep
mixing and just some high-based flat afternoon cu beneath warm and
stable mid levels. Highs will be mostly in the mid 90s. Expect lows
Tue night in the upper 60s to lower 70s as higher dewpoints begin to
advect back into the area. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 255 AM Monday...

A front will approach from the northwest on Wednesday, and the
ensembles are slightly faster than the deterministic models with the
arrival of precipitation chances - while the deterministic models
keep conditions dry through the day, the SREF, GEFS, and EPS all
bring some pops into the Triad by sunset. The chance for rain
continues Wednesday night, with the ensembles again showing higher
chances than the deterministic models. The actual front moves
through sometime late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and
have added an area of likely pops southeast of Raleigh Thursday
afternoon. Any showers/storms Friday should be less organized, with
isolated coverage to the north and scattered coverage to the south.
Coverage again remains isolated everywhere on Saturday. Both
deterministic and ensemble models are coming into better agreement
that another front will approach the region from the northwest, with
perhaps better agreement for a chance of rain that day compared to
Thursday. Will make some modest increases for the chances of rain on
Sunday.

As for temperatures, Wednesday appears likely to have the hottest
temperatures of the next seven days, and is the most likely day for
triple digits to make their return. Otherwise, temperatures should
remain in the 90s for the majority of locations through the rest of
the forecast period. Lows should generally be in the 70s. Heat index
values are also the highest on Wednesday, with that day having the
greatest coverage of 100-105, although every day in the forecast has
some location reaching at least a 100 degree heat index.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 630 AM Monday...

VFR conditions will be dominant across central NC for the next 24
hours, with a couple of exceptions through early this evening. MVFR
cigs will persist for another couple of hours in the far E (RWI)
before breaking up. Attention then turns to an approaching front
that will move into the area by midday, then move through the area
and push to our SE by mid evening. This will prompt scattered to
numerous storms this afternoon through early evening across the SE,
with gusty/erratic winds in/near storms. The chance of storms is
fairly high near FAY from mid afternoon through early evening, but
lower near RDU/RWI where storms will be more isolated and occur
earlier in the day, in the early to mid afternoon. Any storms will
exit the SE by 02z, leaving VFR conditions through the end of the
TAF valid period. Initially light surface winds from the SW and WSW
will increase 13z-14z to around 10-15 kt with around 20 kt gusts
(stronger near storms) while gradually shifting around to be from
the NW as the front passes through. Light winds from the N and NE
are expected later tonight.

Looking beyond 12z Tue, expect mostly dry and VFR conditions through
Tue night. Isolated late day storms are possible late Wed, followed
by a better chance of afternoon/evening showers and storms Thu.
Otherwise, outside of any storms, the risk of widespread sub-VFR
conditions is low through Fri. -GIH
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 24:
KRDU: 99/2010
KFAY: 102/1914

June 25:
KRDU: 100/1952
KFAY: 102/1914

June 26:
KRDU: 102/1952
KFAY: 101/1951

June 27:
KFAY: 102/1998


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 24:
KGSO: 76/2015
KRDU: 76/1888
KFAY: 79/2010

June 25:
KFAY: 75/1952

June 26:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 76/1902
KFAY: 76/1997

June 27:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 77/1998

June 28:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 78/1914

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH